The final match of the Red Group of the 2021 ATP Finals from Turin will take place on Thursday between Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner. Medvedev has already qualified for the semifinals, while Sinner will look to do the same with a win. But both players have plenty to play for in this matchup, and our tennis betting picks will analyze Medvedev vs Sinner with the mindset that both players have motivation to perform.
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner
Why Bet On Daniil Medvedev:
✅ Medvedev has won four of the five sets these two have played in previous Medvedev vs Sinner matches. Of those four sets, Medvedev has secured at least a double-break advantage in three of them, winning 25 service games to 15 against the Italian over the course of their brief two-match history.
✅ While Sinner is playing for the final spot in the semifinals from this group, Medvedev does have motivation to win this match. Though he has already advanced in the tournament, the Russian number one would receive additional ranking points for beating Sinner that would help him to overtake Novak Djokovic in the tour rankings in 2022. This match does still mean something to Medvedev, and he will play like it.
✅ Medvedev is simply playing better tennis to close out this year. He is 27-4 post-Wimbledon, while Sinner had lost three straight matches before his group stage win over Hurkacz. Hurkacz was unsure whether he would be playing Matteo Berrettini or Sinner until the day of that match, which gave Sinner an advantage he will not receive here.
Daniil Medvedev has continued to play incredible tennis on the hard courts during this year’s ATP Finals. The Russian has won both of his group stage matches so far, guaranteeing himself a spot in the final four of this event later in the week. Here, Medvedev doesn’t have anything to play for in terms of his spot in the next round, but he does have money and ranking points to play for, which are arguably better motivators for someone of his stature.
For Medvedev, the key to this match will be how well he deals with a crowd that will undoubtedly be pro-Sinner for the duration of the match. We have seen in Berrettini’s match with Zverev and Sinner’s match with Hubert Hurkacz that the Italian crowd will vocally back their own. It will be up to Medvedev to block that out and deliver if he wants to max out his points in this event.
Jannik Sinner has an easy to understand objective for his match against Daniil Medvedev, as a win will get him into the semifinals. A late injury replacement for Matteo Berrettini, Sinner won his first match as an ATP Finalist against Hubert Hurkacz earlier in the week. The question now is whether Sinner can beat a player who is playing the best tennis in the world right now in this must-win match.
For Sinner to win this match, he will have to be both aggressive and creative at the same time against Medvedev. Sinner’s heavy forehand is a great weapon, but Medvedev’s defense could neutralize it somewhat. It will be up to the Italian to create enough angles and give enough variety to neutralize the deep defending that Medvedev is so good at.