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Sinner vs Alcaraz Betting Pick
The last quarterfinal match of the 2022 US Open men’s draw is a battle of two of the top young stars in tennis. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner both had to stay up late to win five-set matches their last time out. But the two young guns will be ready to go to war once again with a spot in the semifinals on the line. In our tennis betting picks for Wednesday, we break down Sinner vs Alcaraz in what could be a memorable match inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Why Bet On Jannik Sinner:
✅ These two have split their four all-time meetings, which have gone from the Challenger level all the way up to Wimbledon. But Sinner has won the last two of their head to head matches, beating Alcaraz at Wimbledon this year in their only major confrontation. Sinner may not win this match, but he will keep things close enough to cover the 3.5 service games line.
✅ In their three head to head matches, excluding their match at the Challenger level, Jannik Sinner has been broken just two times total. Both of those breaks came at the Paris Masters on an indoor hardcourt in 2021. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has been broken 10 times in those three matches. Sinner has saved 16 of 16 break points he has faced against Alcaraz in 2022, and his ability to get out of trouble will help him here.
✅ There are likely to be nerves on both side that could push this match to four or five sets and help Sinner cover the games line. The winner of this match will become the favorite to win the US Open in all likelihood. As a result, we could see some uncharacteristic errors on both sides that will lead to drama down the stretch, which makes the underdog worth backing in this instance.
The form of Jannik Sinner at this year’s US Open has been anything but convincing. He has dropped at least one set in three of his four matches, and barely survived his round of 16 match with Ilya Ivashka. But Sinner has made everything happen that he has needed to in order to reach the quarterfinals. The question now is whether or not he can raise his level to take down Carlos Alcaraz.
Sinner has to feel confident that he can beat Alcaraz, given that he is 2-0 against the Spaniard so far in 2022. But this is the first match between these players on an outdoor hardcourt, and it will be interesting to see how that impacts the proceedings. If Sinner can get his first serve percentage up, after failing to make half of his first serves against Ivashka, he should be able to keep himself out of trouble enough to make this a tight match throughout.
Carlos Alcaraz had been rolling through the US Open, winning all eight of the sets he played through the first three rounds. But he needed five sets against Marin Cilic in the fourth round, narrowly escaping an upset loss at the hands of the experienced Croatian player on Monday night. Here, Alcaraz comes in as the favorite against Sinner, but his results against the Italian have been a mixed bag.
For Alcaraz, this match will come down to how well he takes his chances to break when they become available to him. He is 0/16 on break point conversion against Sinner in 2022, and has broken him just twice in three matches at the tour level. If he cannot close out breaks of serve in this match, he could be sent home before the semifinals, which would be a huge disappointment given what an opportunity this is for Alcaraz to claim his first major.