The second semifinal at the ATP Indian Wells Masters was expected to be an anticipated rematch between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Sascha Zverev. But thanks to two sizable upsets on Friday, it will be Nikoloz Basilashvili and Taylor Fritz playing for their right to compete in a Masters 1000 final. In this set of ATP tennis betting picks, we look at Basilashvili vs Fritz and determine what the best bet is for this matchup between surprising semifinalists.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Taylor Fritz
Why bet the Basilashvili vs Fritz Over:
✅ Both players are coming off of grueling three-set matches against higher seeded opponents on Friday, and will have just a day to recover for the semifinals. Because of that, it will be hard for either player to sustain their level to the point that they can sweep aside their opponent in straight sets.
✅ Fritz and Basilashvili have played three matches against one another at the tour level, with two of those matches going three sets. With the heightened stakes surrounding this match, it is worth backing these players to extend that run to three out of four matches going the distance in the Basilashvili vs Fritz series.
✅ Nerves will also be a factor in this match, as neither player has made it this far in a Masters 1000 tournament before. The player who jumps out to a lead by taking the first set could very well be overcome by the nerves of having a chance to make their debut in a Masters event final, while the trailing player is able to open up and play freely in an attempt to make a comeback.
Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili set the tone for an upset-filled Friday at Indian Wells when he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in three sets to reach the semifinals. Basilashvili won the first set, breaking Tsitsipas multiple times to build an insurmountable lead in the opener. After dropping set number two to take things to a decider, Basilashvili was again able to make enough inroads on the Tsitsipas serve to secure the necessary breaks to win the match.
What has been so impressive about Basilashvili’s run at Indian Wells is the fact that he’s doing it despite not having the huge serve many top players rely on. Instead, Basilashvili has been relying on a wicked forehand to get him through his matches, as he has been one of the few players able to consistently hit through the slow courts at this tournament with his ground strokes. Against Fritz, he will need to continue to hit massive forehands, as Fritz has proven he can defend admirably.
Taylor Fritz completed the Friday full of upsets at Indian Wells when he knocked out Sascha Zverev in three sets. Fritz lost the first set in that match, stormed back to win the second, then took a third set tiebreak in convincing fashion to advance. While he came out flat, Fritz answered the bell whenever he needed to conjure up a break or a big point, and was helped by the pro-American crowd in California.
Working in Fritz’s favor heading into this match is the fact that he has already taken down two players who can hit big the way Basilashvili will aim to in this match. Matteo Berrettini might have the best forehand on tour, and Fritz beat him. Zverev has a bigger serve than Basilashvili by a wide margin, and Fritz was able to deal with that as well. As long as Fritz doesn’t fall victim to the nerves of this stage, he has a real chance to move to the final.