Amalie Arena will be hosting an enticing matchup as the Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Tampa Bay Lightning. The puck drops at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25, and you’ll be able to watch this Atlantic Division matchup live on Fox Sports Sun.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
Tampa Bay (-185) is currently the big favorite over Toronto (+160) and the Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 7 goals (-130 for the over, +110 for the under) at Draftkings Sportsbook.
The Lightning are 40-22 straight up (SU) and have netted moneyline bettors 5.0 units this year. That winning percentage, strongest in the league so far this season, is a big slide from what the team recorded during the 2018-19 season (62-20). Through 62 regular season contests, 32 of its games have gone over the total, while 27 have gone under and just three have pushed. Thus far, the team’s 20-9 SU at home.
Tampa Bay’s converted on 23.5 percent of its power play chances this year, a figure that’s good enough for sixth-best in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked seventh overall, and it’s successfully killed off 82.7 percent of all penalties.
Tampa Bay, as a collective unit, has been penalized 4.0 times per game overall this season, and 4.7 per game over its last ten contests. The team has been forced to kill penalties for 10.4 minutes per game over its last five home outings.
Averaging 28.3 saves per game with a .916 save percentage, Andrei Vasilevskiy (32-14-3) has been the most dependable option in goal for the Lightning this year. If they, however, decide to give him a breather, the team could turn to Curtis McElhinney (8-8-8 record, .911 save percentage, 2.76 goals against average).
Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos will each spearhead the attack for the Lightning. Kucherov (75 points) has put up 29 goals and 46 assists and has recorded two or more points 23 times this year. Stamkos has 29 goals and 36 assists to his name and has recorded at least one point in 40 games.
Toronto has lost 11.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline this year and is currently 32-31 straight up (SU). A total of 36 of its outings have gone over the total, while 25 have gone under the total and just two have pushed. As a road team, Toronto is 16-15 SU.
Toronto has scored on 23.6 percent of its power play chances this year, a mark that places it in the top-10 among NHL teams. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 27th overall and it’s successfully killed off 76.1 percent of all opponent power plays.
Toronto’s skaters have been whistled for penalties only 3.2 times per game in total this season, 3.6 per game over their last five games total, and 3.2 per game over their last five on the road. The team has been forced to defend opponent power plays just 8.4 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Frederik Andersen (2.98 goals against average and .906 save percentage) has been the primary option in goal for Toronto. Andersen is averaging 27.6 saves per game and owns a 25-22-6 record.
Auston Matthews (43 goals, 30 assists) will pace the offensive attack for the visiting Maple Leafs.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Predictions
NHL Prediction: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Under
Toronto (1-4 in shootouts this season) has more experience in games decided by shootout. Tampa Bay, however, emerged victorious in both of its shootouts this year.
For both of these teams, the total has gone over in four of their last five outings.
Toronto’s attempted 33.2 shots per contest overall this season (the second-most in the NHL), and 28.4 in its last five road games.
Over Toronto’s last ten games, six of them have been decided by two or more goals (the team is 2-4 in those games).
The Lightning this season have recorded the seventh-most hits per game in the NHL (23.7), but the team’s averaged 32.2 over their last five home games.