Canadian Tire Centre is the site for an enticing tilt as the Tampa Bay Lightning travel north to face the Ottawa Senators. Fox Sports Sun will showcase this Atlantic Division matchup, which gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 4.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Odds
Playing the role of favorite will be Tampa Bay (-210), whereas Ottawa is a dog showing moneyline odds of +175, and the oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 7 goals. The line for betting that total stands at -120 for the over and even money (+100) for the under.
Tampa Bay is 22-17 straight up (SU) and has lost 5.5 units for moneyline bettors thus far. Through 39 regular season contests, 23 of its games have gone over the total, while 15 have gone under and just one has pushed. The Bolts are 10-8 SU as a road team in 2019-20.
Tampa Bay currently has the second-strongest power-play unit in the NHL, as it’s converted on 29.5 percent of its extra-man chances this year. Its penalty kill is ranked 13th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 81.6 percent of its penalties.
For the team as a whole, Tampa Bay has been penalized 4.0 times per game in the 2019-20 season, 4.0 per game over its past five matchups total, and 4.6 per game over its last five games as the visiting team. The team’s had to kill penalties just 7.9 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Averaging 28.3 saves per game with a .909 save percentage, Andrei Vasilevskiy (18-11-2) has been the top option in goal for Tampa Bay this season. If head coach Jon Cooper chooses to rest him, however, Tampa Bay may go with Curtis McElhinney (4-6-2 record, .905 save percentage, 3.21 goals against average).
The visiting Lightning have relied heavily on Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos this year. Kucherov has 42 points via 14 goals and 28 assists, and has recorded multiple points in 10 different games. Stamkos has 15 goals and 22 assists to his credit (and has registered at least one point in 23 games).
On the other side of the rink, Ottawa is 16-25 straight up (SU) and has lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors thus far. 23 of its matches have gone over the total, while 18 have gone under and none have pushed. It’s 11-8 SU as the home team this year.
Ottawa has converted on just 11.0 percent of its power play chances this year, a mark that’s ranked 32nd in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 17th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 80.8 percent of all penalties.
Ottawa skaters have been penalized 4.1 times per game this season, 4.2 per game over their past five games total, and 3.6 per game over their last five at home. The team has been forced to defend opponent power plays just 7.8 minutes per game over their last five home outings.
Anders Nilsson has stopped 28.5 shots per game as the top netminder in the crease for Ottawa. Nilsson has nine wins, 11 losses, and two OT losses to his name and has maintained a subpar .908 save percentage and 3.18 goals against average this year.
The home team will be led on offense by Anthony Duclair (21 goals, 11 assists).
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators Betting Predictions
Free Pick: SU Winner – Senators, O/U – Over
For both of these clubs, the game went over the total in four of their past five outings.
Penalties and power plays could have a key role in the outcome of this matchup. The Lightning are 9-7 in games where they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 12-9 when they serve fewer than 10 total penalty minutes. The Senators are 5-10 when the team serves fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 7-12 in games where total penalty minutes are in the single digits.
Ottawa has forced 6.2 takeaways per game over its last five home games, a slight drop from its season average of 6.5 takeaways per game (ranked 27th overall).
Tampa Bay has averaged 4.2 goals per game, while giving up just 2.2, over the team’s five-game winning streak.
Tampa Bay skaters have created 4.4 takeaways per game over its last five road games, a drop-off from its season average of 7.2 takeaways per game (ranked 20th in the NHL).
Tampa Bay could hold the upper hand if it’s a tight one late. The team’s 11-9 in one-goal games, while Ottawa is 6-9 in such games.