One game was played in the NHL on Sunday. There are a LOT more than that on Monday. We’ve got a very busy week in the NHL. Last week was light by comparison. The regular season comes to an end on Wednesday May 19, as the league will make use of the last day of its buffer period so the Canucks and Flames can play one last time.
The playoff races continue and the push for seeding is also taking place. The playoffs format pits 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 in the division against each other. Then the winners in those divisions advance. Once we get down to the final four teams, the league will seed them by their regular season points, so there is a chance that teams from the same conference will play for the Stanley Cup.
As the season draws to a close, a few general things that should happen. The first is that games between teams not playing for anything should be pretty wide-open. We should see a lot of overs in games with two non-playoff teams, especially those eliminated already. As the importance of a game drops, defensive effort usually follows and players look to put up stats.
The second is that really bad teams continue to be really bad or even get worse as they look to improve their Draft Lottery odds or play young players that may take on bigger roles next season.
The third is that bad road teams are probably even more disengaged. This is especially true in a COVID season with the ongoing restrictions.
Lastly, you’ll pay a premium on teams in “must-win” situations. The playoff contender against the bad team. That line will be 10-15 cents higher, if not more, just because of the situation for both teams. Be advised that you’ll be doing this if you bet a game like that.
Here are the NHL schedule spots and situational betting tips for the week ending May 9:
Monday May 3
New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres – The Islanders have lost 20 games this season. Six of the losses have been to the Washington Capitals. Overall, 14 of their 20 losses have been on the road. They’re taking on the Sabres on the road on Monday. Buffalo has played a lot better of late, but is still one of the worst teams in the NHL. The Islanders are basically a .500 team on the road and they have 11 wins. Buffalo has 13 total. I have to think that winning on the road is a point of emphasis moving forward for the Isles. We’re laying a heavy price here, but the Islanders have to get this road thing figured out, so this is a game they should take seriously. The Islanders are 6-0 against Buffalo after all.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers – This is an interesting one in my opinion. One of the things that this schedule format was expected to do was enhance rivalries. I don’t know if that has happened. The Flyers have been eliminated and the Penguins have already clinched, but the top spot in the division and some seeding considerations are on the line for the Penguins. Do the Flyers care to try and play spoiler? I think it’s worth seeing if bad teams get excited for that kind of role, especially if the teams are playing a back-to-back as these two are.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens – There is a certain level of incentive to racking up as many points as possible, but the Maple Leafs are running away with the North Division. Montreal is trying to secure that fourth and final playoff spot in the division. The incentive is on Montreal’s side here, but the Maple Leafs are clearly the better team. I think you have to decide what you should weigh more in these situations. I don’t know the answer, but I’ve planted the question.
Anaheim Ducks at St. Louis Blues – That must-win inflation will be present in this game. The Blues are finally not playing Minnesota, Vegas, or Colorado. They’re playing the lowly Ducks and they are inching closer to securing a playoff berth. These are two points that they have to have and should get. Just keep in mind that you’ll pay extra to bet them based on that.
Tuesday May 4
Teams in a back-to-back with no off day:
Islanders at Sabres
Bruins at Devils
Penguins at Flyers
Blackhawks at Hurricanes
Oilers at Canucks
There are five games on Tuesday and all of them fall under this category. There isn’t much to add to any of them either. Just consider what happened in the first meeting and see what, if anything, applies to the second one.
Wednesday May 5
Teams in a back-to-back with an off day:
Capitals at Rangers
Predators at Blue Jackets
Ducks at Blues
Golden Knights at Wild
Avalanche at Sharks
Kings at Coyotes
The Blues will have that must-win inflation again in this spot. Something else to consider is that teams that clinch a playoff berth are usually a good fade the next day. They’ve felt that sense of accomplishment. Usually they go out and get a little wild. That isn’t really the case in this COVID environment, at least not to the same degree, but it is still something I would consider because of the mental, physical, and emotional stress of this season.
Otherwise, same deal as the back-to-backs for Tuesday. See if anything actionable comes out of the first game.
Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning – Tampa Bay is already locked into the playoffs. Dallas is fighting to get in. The Stars have played a lot of tight, low-scoring games. They’ve lost 12 times in overtime. They’re getting at least one point a lot. Tampa Bay will be a big favorite here, but Dallas’s style of play makes it hard to get margin. With what is on the line for the Stars, this might be a good spot for one of those +1.5 bets on the underdog puck line for Dallas to keep it close.
Thursday May 6
Teams in a back-to-back with an off day:
Blackhawks at Hurricanes
This is the only one that is in the same venue. The Canucks and Oilers play each other again, but in Edmonton. This is the third straight game between the Blackhawks, whose playoff prospects have dwindled, and the Hurricanes, who are just trying to improve their seeding.
New York Rangers at Boston Bruins – This game may not matter as much by Thursday, but the Rangers are chasing the Bruins for the final playoff spot in the division. They’re probably not going to make it, but this could be a last stand kind of game. We should get a huge Rangers effort here, but a loss could very well end their chances. I’m not sure I’d lay a big price with Boston.
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto and Montreal played each other on Monday and now square off again on Thursday. Toronto has the better situation here, as the Canadiens will have just played on Wednesday against Toronto. Two days off at this stage of the game is worth its weight in gold. Montreal is definitely up against it in this spot, but Toronto will be heavily favored.
Friday May 7
Teams in a back-to-back with an off day:
Stars at Lightning
Not much to say here. Same things as Wednesday apply.
Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets – It is hard to find a team less engaged than the Columbus Blue Jackets. Trades stripped the team of its leadership and John Tortorella will probably go in a different direction at the end of the season. They have chances at wins this weekend against the lowly Red Wings, but I wouldn’t bet on them. Detroit is still playing fairly hard. Columbus is definitely not.
St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights – I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blues rest on their laurels a little bit here against Vegas if…and this is a big if…they’ve done what they’ve needed to do against the Ducks this week. That should put St. Louis well ahead of the other challengers in the division. Vegas is just a dominant team at this point in time and St. Louis may know that they’re in good shape to get in and see this team again. Maybe the Blues won’t show too much here. I can’t really quantify that, but it’s just a thought, which is what this article is all about.
Arizona Coyotes at San Jose Sharks – In that same breath, if the Blues have taken care of their affairs and the playoff prospects look bleak for the Arizona Coyotes, then they could be a good fade team the rest of the way. It’s been a rough season for them with a lot of front office uncertainty and turnover. The Sharks have also had a rough season by playing their first 12 games on the road, but their statistical profile suggests that they should be a bit better than they are. Depending on how the standings look, San Jose is one of my favorite spots of the week.
Saturday May 8
Teams in a back-to-back with an off day:
Rangers at Bruins
Sabres at Penguins
Devils at Islanders
Canadiens at Maple Leafs
Canucks at Oilers
Teams in a back-to-back with no off day:
Flyers at Capitals
Red Wings at Blue Jackets
Ducks at Wild
Blues at Golden Knights
Avalanche at Kings
Coyotes at Sharks
Well, that makes up the bulk of the Saturday schedule. A lot of the same things I’ve already addressed apply here. You can look to follow through with those things.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers – The Sunshine State battles have been good ones and both teams definitely get up for these matchups. The teams have split the six meetings down the middle. Also, this is the second-to-last game of the regular season for both teams. A lot of teams will actually end the regular season over the next few days. These are the last chances to accumulate points and get revenge.
Specific to this game, the Panthers won the most recent game to even up the season series, so maybe Tampa Bay looks for revenge from that April 17 game. The bigger takeaway, at least to me, is that the regular season is coming to a close for teams that didn’t lose games due to COVID.
Sunday May 9
Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks – Dallas will finish up the regular season with these two games against the Blackhawks on Sunday and Monday. We’ll have to see as the week goes along how important these games are. They may not be important for the Blackhawks, but could be for the Stars, which will very much bring in that must-win premium. Just be aware if it’s there.
Keep an eye out for these NHL situational spot articles at ATS.io!
