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January 24th, 2023

Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Prediction 1/24/23

Chase Ruttig Chase Ruttig

Tuesday has an NHL betting slate of 11 games to choose from, with our focus centered on the Minnesota Wild’s trip down south to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning. It is an Eastern Conference vs Western Conference matchup between a Lightning team looking for a fourth straight Stanley Cup trip out of the East and a Wild team with dark horse chances to make a Cup run in their own conference. 

NHL betting odds have the Lightning as -145 moneyline favorites and the Wild as +125 underdogs in this matchup. The game total is set at six goals, with the over juiced to -125 at the time of writing.

Wild vs Lightning Betting Pick

ℹ️ The Pick: Wild Moneyline (+125)
? Recommended Sportsbook Promo: First Bet on Caesars up to $1,250
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This game will be played at Amalie Arena at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, January 24, 2023.

Why Bet the Wild:

✅ Minnesota is the better value play in this matchup at plus money with the Lightning juiced all the way to -145 in what should be a closely contested game.

✅ The Wild historically play the Lightning well and haven’t lost in regulation in this matchup since 2017.

✅ Tampa was badly outplayed in the two teams’ meeting in early January. The Wild won 5-1 that day and continued to look like they have the Lightning figured out.

The Pick: Wild Moneyline (+125)

Caesars Pick
Bet Now

NHL

Jan 24, 2023 07:00 PM

Minnesota Wild

VS

Tampa Bay Lightning

Matchup Odds Trends

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+142
BetMGM
-172

21% MIN

TB 79%

Total Pick Consensus

6.0/-120
Caesars
6.0/+100

21% UN

OV 79%

Puckline Pick Consensus

+1.5/-175
Caesars
-1.5/+150

48% MIN

TB 52%

Team Records

MIN Team Records TB
9-10-4Overall12-10-5
1-2Shootout0-0
0-2Overtime1-5
5-4-2Home8-3-3
4-6-2Road4-7-2
4-7-4EAS6-5-3
5-3-0WES6-5-2
2-3-2ATL3-2-3
2-4-2MET3-3-0
3-2-0CEN3-5-1
2-1-0PAC3-0-1
1-3-4≤12-0-5
5-6-0≥34-5-0
3-4-2Oct4-2-3
4-6-2Nov6-7-2
2-0-0Dec2-1-0
0-0-0Jan0-0-0
0-0-0Feb0-0-0
0-0-0Mar0-0-0
0-0-0Apr0-0-0

Team Stats

MIN Team Stats TB
74Goals For90
80Goals Agst94
3.7PP For GM3.37
.70PP Goals GM1.07
18.82PP%31.87
3.61PP Agst GM2.96
.04PP Agst Goals GM.48
71.08PK%83.75
12.0PIM GM10.9
11.3oPIM GM11.1

Goalies

M. Fleury A. Vasilevskiy
39GP6
38GS6
21-13-3W-L-T/O3-3-0
103Goals Allowed15
2.76GAA2.67
1132Shots Against149
.909SV%.899
2SO1
23Quality Starts3
.605QS%.500
8Bad Starts1
96Goals All.%104
4.32Goals Sv Above Avg-0.56

Recent Starts

M. Fleury A. Vasilevskiy
Date Opp W/L GA SA SV SV%
5/4/22
STL
Husso
ML N/A
W6-2
TOTAL N/A
2
34
32
.941
5/2/22
STL
Husso
ML N/A
L0-4
TOTAL N/A
4
31
27
.871
4/29/22
COL
Francouz
ML N/A
W4-1
TOTAL N/A
1
28
27
.964
4/26/22
ARI
Vejmelka
ML N/A
L3-5
TOTAL N/A
4
25
21
.840
4/24/22
NAS
Rittich
ML N/A
W5-4
TOTAL N/A
4
25
21
.840
Date Opp W/L GA SA SV SV%
5/4/22
TOR
Campbell
ML N/A
W5-3
TOTAL N/A
3
34
31
.912
5/2/22
TOR
Campbell
ML N/A
L0-5
TOTAL N/A
5
32
27
.844
4/29/22
NYI
Sorokin
ML N/A
W6-4
TOTAL N/A
4
37
33
.892
4/26/22
CBJ
Merzlikins
ML N/A
W4-1
TOTAL N/A
1
21
20
.952
4/24/22
FLA
Bobrovsky
ML N/A
W8-4
TOTAL N/A
4
39
35
.897
  • MoneyLine
  • PuckLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIN
TB
MIN
TB
Consensus
+120
-143
+142
-172
Draftkings

Bet $5 Get $150 + No Sweat SGP Daily

+135
-155
+140
-165
FanDuel

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+122
-146
+138
-166
BetRivers

Second chance bet up to $500

+135
-165
+148
-175
Caesars

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

+135
-160
+140
-165
PointsBet

—-

+135
-160
+140
-165
BetMGM

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+135
-165
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
MIN
TB
MIN
TB
Consensus
+1.5 -179
-1.5 +160
+1.5 -179
-1.5 +146
Draftkings

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+1.5 -175
-1.5 +155
+1.5 -175
-1.5 +150
FanDuel

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+1.5 -180
-1.5 +160
+1.5 -180
-1.5 +146
BetRivers

Second chance bet up to $500

+1.5 -175
-1.5 +155
+1.5 -175
-1.5 +145
Caesars

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

+1.5 -178
-1.5 +150
+1.5 -178
-1.5 +150
PointsBet

—-

+1.5 -185
-1.5 +155
+1.5 -185
-1.5 +155
BetMGM

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+1.5 -185
-1.5 +150
+1.5 -185
-1.5 +150
Open
Current
Book
Over
Under
Over
Under
Consensus
6.5 -105
6.5 -115
6.0 -123
6.0 +102
Draftkings

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6.5 +105
6.5 -125
6.5 +100
6.5 -120
FanDuel

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6.5 -105
6.5 -115
6.5 +102
6.5 -128
BetRivers

Second chance bet up to $500

6.0 -118
6.0 +100
6.0 -122
6.0 +104
Caesars

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

6.5 +100
6.5 -120
6.0 -120
6.0 +100
PointsBet

—-

6.0 -125
6.0 +105
6.0 -125
6.0 +105
BetMGM

Bet $10 Get $200 Instantly In Bonus Bets

6.5 +100
6.5 -120
6.0 -120
6.0 +100

Betting Trends

Last 3 Last 5 Last 10
MIN Betting Trends TB
OVERALLOVERALL
1-2-0Win/Loss/Tie1-2-0
1-2-0ATS W/L/P1-2-0
3Avg Score3.67
4Avg Opp Score4.33
AWAYHOME
1-2-0Win/Loss/Tie3-0-0
1-2-0ATS W/L/P2-1-0
3Avg Score5.33
4Avg Opp Score3.33
MIN Betting Trends TB
OVERALLOVERALL
3-2-0Win/Loss/Tie3-2-0
2-3-0ATS W/L/P3-2-0
2.8Avg Score3.8
2.8Avg Opp Score3.2
AWAYHOME
2-3-0Win/Loss/Tie5-0-0
3-2-0ATS W/L/P3-2-0
3Avg Score4.4
3.4Avg Opp Score2.4
MIN Betting Trends TB
OVERALLOVERALL
5-5-0Win/Loss/Tie6-4-0
5-5-0ATS W/L/P5-5-0
3.2Avg Score3.7
3Avg Opp Score3.3
AWAYHOME
5-5-0Win/Loss/Tie9-1-0
6-4-0ATS W/L/P7-3-0
3.5Avg Score4.3
3.2Avg Opp Score2.2

Head to Head

Date TM ML Tot 1st 2nd 3rd OT SC
01/04/23
TB
MIN
-103
-117
Ov6.5
Un6.5
0
1
1
3
0
1

1
5
11/28/21
TB
MIN
-107
-113
Ov5.5
Un5.5
1
2
1
0
0
2

2
4
11/21/21
MIN
TB
+106
-126
Ov6.0
Un6.0
1
2
1
1
2
1
0
0
4
5
01/16/20
TB
MIN
-164
+135
Ov6.5
Un6.5
0
1
1
2
1
0

2
3
12/05/19
MIN
TB
+177
-220
Ov6.0
Un6.0
3
2
1
1
1
1

5
4
03/07/19
MIN
TB
+205
-250
Ov6.0
Un6.0
1
0
0
0
2
0

3
0
10/20/18
TB
MIN
-137
+127
Ov6.0
Un6.0
3
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
4
5
01/20/18
TB
MIN
-115
-105
Ov5.5
Un5.5
0
2
1
1
1
2

2
5
12/23/17
MIN
TB
+210
-250
Ov6.0
Un6.0
0
0
0
0
0
3

0
3
03/09/17
MIN
TB
-135
+115
Ov5.5
Un5.5
0
2
0
1
1
1

1
4

Teams Last 10

Minnesota Wild Tampa Bay Lightning
Date TM ML Tot 1st 2nd 3rd OT SC
12/05/23
MIN
CGY
-175
-175
Ov15.2
Un15.2
3
0
8
3
3
3

13
5
12/03/23
CHI
MIN
+420
-537
Ov10.8
Un10.8
0
8
0
3
3
0

3
11
11/30/23
MIN
NAS
+33
-39
Ov0.6
Un0.6
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
11/28/23
STL
MIN
+103
-125
Ov3.9
Un3.9
1
1
0
0
0
1

1
2
11/26/23
MIN
DET
-97
-89
Ov4.6
Un4.6
1
1
0
1
0
1

1
3
11/24/23
COL
MIN
-120
+98
Ov5.3
Un5.3
1
0
1
2
1
0

2
2
11/12/23
DAL
MIN
-186
-165
Ov15.2
Un15.2
8
5
5
3
8
0

13
8
11/10/23
MIN
BUF
-160
-180
Ov15.1
Un15.1
2
2
0
2
2
2

5
7
11/09/23
MIN
NYR
+90
-110
Ov5.2
Un5.2
0
1
1
0
0
2

1
3
11/07/23
MIN
NYI
-89
-93
Ov4.1
Un4.1
1
1
1
1
1
0

3
1
Date TM ML Tot 1st 2nd 3rd OT SC
12/06/23
PIT
TB
+83
-100
Ov3.6
Un3.6
0
1
0
1
1
0

1
2
12/04/23
DAL
TB
-97
-82
Ov4.3
Un4.3
0
1
0
0
0
1

0
3
12/02/23
TB
DAL
+108
-131
Ov4.6
Un4.6
1
2
0
2
0
2

1
6
11/30/23
PIT
TB
+36
-44
Ov0.7
Un0.7
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
11/28/23
TB
ARI
-93
+77
Ov3.9
Un3.9
0
1
1
1
0
1

1
2
11/27/23
TB
COL
+180
-217
Ov10.5
Un10.5
0
3
3
5
0
3

3
11
11/24/23
TB
CAR
+125
-152
Ov5.3
Un5.3
0
1
2
1
4
0

7
2
11/18/23
EDM
TB
-39
+32
Ov0.6
Un0.6
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
11/16/23
TB
CHI
-331
+267
Ov11.2
Un11.2
0
3
6
0
6
3

12
6
11/14/23
TB
STL
-222
+182
Ov10.8
Un10.8
0
3
0
5
0
5

0
14
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Minnesota Wild

The Wild head to Tampa Bay well rested on their road trip but facing a tough opponent as they look to get back in the win column. Losses to the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers moved the team to 1-2 on their current road swing. 

Defense was the issue on the weekend for the Wild, who struggled to keep the puck out of the net and conceded five goals in both losses. Giving up five goal games is a rarity for the Wild, who average 2.9 goals allowed per game so the hope is there for a quick return to more defensively sound hockey. 

Staying out of the penalty box is a major key to the game for the Wild. They are 10-3-1 when they commit fewer penalties than their opponent and are facing a Lightning unit that is the second best power play in the league. 

Minnesota had two days rest for this one, which is a good omen for the Wild. The team is 15-7 in their last 22 games played on two games rest. 

Marc-Andre Fleury is the expected starter in goal for the Wild. The veteran netminder gave up five goals to the Hurricanes in his last start but is well rested after last playing on January 19. Fleury is 14-9-3 this season with a .902 save percentage and 2.94 goals against average.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay returns to home sweet home to take on the Wild after a five game road trip that ended with back to back losses. The Lightning’s trip to Alberta unraveled their road trip as the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames both outgunned Tampa after they opened the road trip with three straight wins. 

Playing at home has been the driving force to the Lightning’s success this season. On the road, Tampa is barely over .500 with a 12-11 record. At home, they are one of the best teams in the NHL with 17 wins and just five losses. The Lightning’s matchup with the Wild on Tuesday night is also an opportunity for them to extend their current home win streak to 10 games. 

Special teams could be an advantage for the Lightning against the Wild. Tampa’s 42 powerplay goals this season give them one of the best units in the league and are matched up nicely against an average Wild penalty kill that ranks 16th. 

Andrei Vasilevskiy is once again the expected starter for the Lightning. The Tampa number one netminder gave up four goals in back to back losses to Edmonton and Calgary but is looking to get back on track now that his team is back on their beloved home ice. Vasilevskiy is 20-12-1 this season with a save percentage of .916.

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Tags: Minnesota Wild, Tampa Bay Lightning
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