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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into last season with high expectations, as their season win total was set at 11.5 games. But the Bucs were mediocre last season, winning the NFC South with an 8-9 record. This year, the Bucs come into the year with much lower expectations, thanks in large part to the retirement of Tom Brady at the quarterback position.
Here, we look at the upcoming season for the remaining members of the Buccaneers, in our 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers season preview. We will also make our prediction for the Bucs in the season win total market, in what will be an interesting year for the Bucs, for better or worse.
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under Season Win Total Odds
| Sportsbook | Over/Under Wins |
|---|---|
| Caesars Sportsbook | 6.5 |
| BetMGM | 6.5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Futures Betting Odds
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Standings Data
| 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|
| Actual Record | 8-9 | 13-4 |
| Point Differential | -45 | +158 |
| ATS W/L | 4-13-1 | 10-9 |
| Over/Under Record | 6-12 | 10-9 |
| Record in Division Games | 2-4 | 4-2 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks, Predictions & Betting News
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: Baker Mayfield, Chase Edmonds
Key Departures: Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate, Tom Brady
Of course, there is no making up for the loss of Tom Brady in an offseason, and the Bucs were not able to make up for it this time. Bringing in Baker Mayfield will at least prevent us from having to see a full season of Kyle Trask under center for Tampa. But this offense is likely to struggle at times unless Mayfield is able to really raise his level in a way we have not seen yet in his career.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Stats
| 2022 (Rank) | 2021 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Play | 5.1 (T-23rd) | 5.9 (T-3rd) |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.4 (32nd) | 4.3 (T-15th) |
| Yards Per Pass Attempt | 6.2 (31st) | 7.3 (13th) |
| Points Per Game | 18.4 (25th) | 29.9 (2nd) |
| Turnovers | 22 (T-14th) | 19 (T-8th) |
Offensively, the Buccaneers were not all that impressive at all last season, despite having Tom Brady under center. Their per-play yardage numbers and scoring stats were all bottom-10 in the league in 2022. While the perception around the Bucs is that they will be a lot worse this season, if they can get anything out of their running game and Mayfield can provide even the slightest vertical threat, the Bucs could at least be a serviceable offensive team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive Stats
| 2022 (Rank) | 2021 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Play Allowed | 5.2 (T-9th) | 5.2 (T-6th) |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt Allowed | 4.4 (T-15th) | 4.2 (T-10th) |
| Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed | 6.2 (T-8th) | 6.1 (3rd) |
| Points Per Game Allowed | 21.1 (T-13th) | 20.9 (7th) |
| Takeaways | 20 (T-20th) | 29 (T-5th) |
On defense, the Buccaneers were solid last year, which was the only reason this team was anywhere near the .500 mark last season. The Bucs were especially strong against the pass last year, giving up just 6.2 yards per pass attempt for the season. That defense will be called upon to be even better this season, to make up for any turnover issues that Mayfield causes on the offensive side of the ball.
Positives & Negatives
On the positive side for the Bucs, they have a defense that should allow them to compete, and a defensive-minded coach that can help them continue to do so. It also does not hurt for the Bucs to be in a division where there are so many changes at quarterback everywhere else. At the very least, the Bucs should be able to finish above the Panthers and Falcons, though they could very well beat out the Saints for first place as well.
On the negative side, the offense of the Bucs could derail them if we get the worst out of Mayfield this season. The running game in Tampa also has some questions to answer, though not having Leonard Fournette in their backfield anymore could turn that negative into a positive.
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total Prediction: Over 6.5 Wins
This season win total is going to be incredibly close, as we have projected seven wins for the Buccaneers in 2023. The move from Brady to Mayfield is a downgrade, of course, but not as big a downgrade as many would think given where Brady was in his career. Look for the Bucs to get to at least 7-10 and to be respectable even if they do not improve on the offensive side of the ball.
