Saquon Barkley projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles on Nov 14, 2024
Saquon Barkley Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 1.5 over: -185
- Receptions 1.5 under: 150
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The model projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 3.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 72.6% to 88.2%.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 50.5% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Eagles.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Washington Commanders, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.2 per game) this year.
Saquon Barkley's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 27.4.
Projection For Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop Bet
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 2.1 Receptions in this weeks game.
Saquon Barkley Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 95.5 over: -129
- Rushing Yards 95.5 under: -106
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is expected by the projection model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.9 rush attempts.
Saquon Barkley has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (106.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (140 per game) vs. the Commanders defense this year.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Eagles.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Washington's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 9th-best in football.
Projection For Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 85.2 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Saquon Barkley Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 13.5 over: -120
- Receiving Yards 13.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The model projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 3.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has compiled a monstrous 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
With an outstanding 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (78th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley stands among the best pass-catching running backs in the league.
Saquon Barkley's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 72.6% to 88.2%.
Saquon Barkley's 7.3 adjusted yards per target this year shows a meaningful boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.7 mark.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 50.5% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Eagles.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Washington Commanders, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.2 per game) this year.
Saquon Barkley's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 27.4.
Projection For Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 15.5 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Saquon Barkley Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 18.5 over: -118
- Carries 18.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is expected by the projection model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.9 rush attempts.
Saquon Barkley has received 60.6% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Eagles.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Washington's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 9th-best in football.
Projection For Saquon Barkley Carries Prop Bet
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 18.5 Carries in this weeks game.
