Patrick Mahomes Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Patrick Mahomes projections and prop bets for Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs on Nov 10, 2024

Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes

Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:

• Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: 100
• Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: -130

Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Chiefs.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.

Patrick Mahomes has attempted 35.8 passes per game this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile when it comes to QBs.

The Kansas City offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are a massive favorite by 7.5 points.

This year, the fierce Broncos defense has given up a meager 1.22 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 9th-best rate in the NFL.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Denver's unit has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

Projection For Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes Prop Bet

Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 1.6 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.

Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards

Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:

• Passing Yards 224.5 over: -140
• Passing Yards 224.5 under: 110

Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Chiefs.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.

Patrick Mahomes has attempted 35.8 passes per game this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile when it comes to QBs.

The Kansas City offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are a massive favorite by 7.5 points.

Patrick Mahomes's 249.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a noteworthy decrease in his passing proficiency over last year's 274.0 mark.

The Broncos pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, surrendering 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

This year, the stout Broncos defense has given up the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a puny 4.3 YAC.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Denver's unit has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

Projection For Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop Bet

Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 230.8 Passing Yards in this weeks game.