Patrick Mahomes projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers on Oct 20, 2024
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Completions
Completions Prop Bet Odds:
- Completions 22.5 over: -122
- Completions 22.5 under: -107
Trends Favoring The Over Completions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.8% of their chances: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a remarkable 70.0% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Completions Prop Bet
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
This year, the fierce 49ers defense has surrendered a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 24.3 Completions in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Pass Attempts
Pass Attempts Prop Bet Odds:
- Pass Attempts 34.5 over: -114
- Pass Attempts 34.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.8% of their chances: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
Trends Favoring The Under Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 37.2 Pass Attempts in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 4.5 over: -115
- Carries 4.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
While Patrick Mahomes has garnered 9.3% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Kansas City's running game in this week's contest at 14.3%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 35.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 3.2 Carries in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: -131
- Interceptions 0.5 under: -104
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.8% of their chances: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
In registering a massive 1.34 interceptions per game this year, Patrick Mahomes places among the bottom QBs in football (10th percentile).
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
San Francisco's defense grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year when it comes to inducing interceptions, accumulating 0.99 per game.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 0.7 Interceptions in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: -115
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.8% of their chances: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football in the red zone (62.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chiefs.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a remarkable 70.0% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
This year, the fierce 49ers defense has surrendered a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 1.6 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 21.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 21.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
While Patrick Mahomes has garnered 9.3% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Kansas City's running game in this week's contest at 14.3%.
With a remarkable record of 7.4 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (81st percentile), Patrick Mahomes places as one of the leading running QBs in football this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 35.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
Patrick Mahomes's 19.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a remarkable reduction in his rushing ability over last year's 24.0 rate.
Patrick Mahomes grades out as one of the weakest QBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 0.81 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
Opposing squads have run for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 98.0 per game) vs. the 49ers defense this year.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 19.9 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 239.5 over: -127
- Passing Yards 239.5 under: -103
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.8% of their chances: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a remarkable 70.0% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
With an exceptional 7.72 adjusted yards-per-target (77th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most effective passers in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
Patrick Mahomes's 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a remarkable diminishment in his throwing prowess over last year's 274.0 figure.
This year, the fierce 49ers defense has surrendered a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 262.5 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
