Josh Jacobs projections and prop bets for Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct 27, 2024
Josh Jacobs Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 2.5 over: -105
- Receptions 2.5 under: -125
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
In this contest, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 83rd percentile among RBs with 3.4 targets.
Josh Jacobs's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 69.0% to 89.9%.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
Josh Jacobs's 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 20.5.
Projection For Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop Bet
Josh Jacobs is projected to have 2.6 Receptions in this weeks game.
Josh Jacobs Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 69.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 69.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
In this week's game, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the projections to place in the 84th percentile among running backs with 15.8 carries.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (62.0).
Josh Jacobs's running effectiveness has been refined this season, totaling 4.34 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.49 figure last season.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.2% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Josh Jacobs has been a less important option in his team's running game this season (58.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (81.5%).
This year, the formidable Jaguars run defense has surrendered a meager 106.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 7th-best in the league.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Jacksonville's group of DEs has been excellent this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.
Projection For Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Josh Jacobs is projected to have 64.1 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Josh Jacobs Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 15.5 over: -120
- Carries 15.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
In this week's game, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the projections to place in the 84th percentile among running backs with 15.8 carries.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.2% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Josh Jacobs has been a less important option in his team's running game this season (58.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (81.5%).
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Jacksonville's group of DEs has been excellent this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.
Projection For Josh Jacobs Carries Prop Bet
Josh Jacobs is projected to have 15 Carries in this weeks game.
Josh Jacobs Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 15.5 over: -110
- Receiving Yards 15.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
In this contest, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 83rd percentile among RBs with 3.4 targets.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 5th-best in football this year.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
When talking about air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in just the 12th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
Josh Jacobs's 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 20.5.
Josh Jacobs's 18.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season's 23.0 rate.
Projection For Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Josh Jacobs is projected to have 19.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
