Player props are set to be more popular than traditional game result wagers in Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. That is especially true of props surrounding popular players like Patrick Mahomes. Here, we look at the list of available Patrick Mahomes player props and make our top picks for the Chiefs quarterback in the prop markets.
Patrick Mahomes Player Props For Super Bowl 58
|258.5 Passing Yards
|1.5 Passing TDs
|25.5 Pass Completions
|36.5 Pass Attempts
|Longest Completion: 35.5 Yards
|26.5 Rush Yards
|4.5 Rush Attempts
|First TD Scorer
|Last TD Scorer
|Anytime TD Scorer
|Super Bowl MVP
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes Prop Prediction #1: Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+105)
We think the Kansas City Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl over the San Francisco 49ers. However, Patrick Mahomes prop unders are the best way to go when wagering on Super Bowl LVIII player props. The first one we like is for Mahomes to stay under his total of 1.5 passing touchdowns, which is definitely a contrarian given the reputation of Mahomes and the tendency of casual bettors to hammer overs in the Super Bowl.
Looking at Mahomes’ recent playoff performances, he has thrown four touchdown passes in his three games this postseason. That is not to say that Mahomes has not been moving the ball effectively through the air, as he has completed 68% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt against three tough playoff opponents. But he has only exceeded the one-touchdown mark in one of his three starts this postseason and we will bank on Mahomes staying under 1.5 passing touchdowns in another playoff game here.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Prediction #2: Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-110)
We will also take the under on Mahomes’ longest completion in this game, which is set at 35.5 yards. Mahomes has had one completion of 36 yards or more this postseason, with that coming in the Wild Card round against a Miami Dolphins team whose defense was suspect for most of the year. Against the Bills and Ravens, Mahomes’ longest completion was 32 yards in each game, which should be on the high end of what we see from him in this game.
In the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers did not allow a completion of more than 25 yards to Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. Given the Chiefs’ tendency to move the ball with short passes, the defense of the Niners should once again prevent any huge passing plays from taking place.
Other Super Bowl Player Props
Bettors who want prop picks for other players heading into Super Bowl LVIII can click the links below to find our picks for players ranging far beyond just Patrick Mahomes.