Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts

Oct 6, 2024

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends
  • Props

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Prediction – 10/6/2024

Colts vs Jaguars Betting Odds

Spread: Indianapolis Colts 3, Jacksonville Jaguars -3
Over/Under: 46
Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts 135, Jacksonville Jaguars -155

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Indianapolis Colts - 41% Indianapolis Colts - 36%
Jacksonville Jaguars - 59% Jacksonville Jaguars - 64%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 6 in 2023. That game resulted in a win for the Jaguars with a final score of 37-20. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Jaguars not only won, but covered the -4.0 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 44.0 and which the Over hit.

Indianapolis's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 429 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #4-most yards per game: 266. The Colts have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 9.39 yards per target (#2-worst). Indianapolis's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive ends, which check in as just the #25-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Colts have ranked #24 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 172 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #10 with 4.58 yards per carry.

Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #2 in football at 5.76 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #28 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 267 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#3 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 against them with 4.1 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 66.3% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness in the pass game bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 52 yards per game (#3-worst in the league).

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

Final Score: Indianapolis Colts 21.47 vs Jacksonville Jaguars 25.13

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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Consensus

Spread Pick Consensus

+2.5/+100
61% IND
-2.5/-120
39% JAX

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+124
40% IND
-148
60% JAX

Total Pick Consensus

46.0/-108
22% UN
46.0/-112
78% OV

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Passing
  • Rushing
  • Special Teams

Offense/Defense

IND
Team Stats
JAX
4
G
4
85
PTs
109
21.2
PPG
27.2
1305
YDS
1520
326.2
YDS/G
380
11
TD
12
2.8
TD/G
3
33.3
SC%
50.0
14.3
TO%
0.0

Defense/Offense

IND
Team Stats
JAX
4
G
4
85
PTs
60
21.2
PPG
15
1599
YDS
1142
399.8
YDS/G
285.5
9
TD
6
2.2
TD/G
1.5
39.5
SC%
27.9
14.0
TO%
7.0

Offense/Defense

IND
Rushing
JAX
4
G
4
105
ATT
109
527
YDS
429
131.8
Y/G
107.3
5.0
Y/A
3.9
6
TD
5
1.5
TD/G
1.2

Defense/Offense

IND
Rushing
JAX
4
G
4
151
ATT
88
659
YDS
505
164.8
Y/G
126.3
4.4
Y/A
5.7
3
TD
2
0.8
TD/G
0.5

Offense/Defense

IND
Passing
JAX
55
CMP
96
103
ATT
142
53.4
CMP%
67.6
194.5
YDS/GM
272.8
8.0
Y/A
8.0
7.1
NY/A
7.3
6
INT
N/A
6
SK
7

Defense/Offense

IND
Passing
JAX
91
CMP
70
132
ATT
130
68.9
CMP%
53.8
235
YDS/GM
159.2
7.8
Y/A
5.8
6.5
NY/A
4.5
2
INT
1
12
SK
13

Offense/Defense

IND
Special Teams
JAX
2
Punts/Ret
11
24
Punt/Yds
98
12.0
Punt/Y/R
8.9
5
Kick Off/Ret
2
139
Kick Off/Yds
57
27.8
Kick Off/Y/rt
28.5

Defense/Offense

IND
Special Teams
JAX
4
Punts/Ret
4
34
Punt/Yds
13
8.5
Punt/Y/R
3.3
1
Kick Off/Ret
7
26
Kick Off/Yds
144
26.0
Kick Off/Y/rt
20.6

Odds

  • Spread
  • MoneyLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
IND JAX
IND JAX
Consensus
+2.5 (-117)
-2.5 (-112)
+3.0 (-117)
-3.0 (-104)
+2.5 (100)
-2.5 (-112)
+2.5 (+100)
-2.5 (-120)
+2.5 (-102)
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-102)
-2.5 (-120)
+2.5 (-117)
-2.5 (-117)
+3.0 (-117)
-3.0 (-105)
+2.5 (-120)
-2.5 (-110)
+3.0 (-120)
-3.0 (+100)
+2.5 (100)
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (+100)
-2.5 (-120)
Open
Current
Book
IND JAX
IND JAX
Consensus
+119
-141
+128
-152
+114
-135
+124
-148
+124
-146
+128
-152
+116
-141
+125
-152
+135
-160
+130
-155
+120
-145
+125
-150
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
45.5 (-108)
45.5 (-113)
46.0 (-111)
46.0 (-109)
46.0 (-110)
46.0 (-110)
46.0 (-112)
46.0 (-108)
45.5 (-105)
45.5 (-115)
46.5 (-105)
46.5 (-115)
45.5 (-112)
45.5 (-109)
46.0 (-110)
46.0 (-110)
45.5 (-110)
45.5 (-110)
46.0 (-110)
46.0 (-110)
45.5 (-110)
45.5 (-110)
46.0 (-110)
46.0 (-110)