Kimi Antonelli heads to Miami as favourite after back-to-back wins in China and Japan, nine points clear of Mercedes teammate George Russell at the top of the standings. The model projects Antonelli to win, with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc second, and Oscar Piastri third on the strength of McLaren arriving with what Andrea Stella has called “an entirely new car.” The swing factor is an 80%-plus chance of Sunday thunderstorms that could scramble every dry-weather call above.
Formula 1 • Round 4 • Sprint Weekend
2026 Miami Grand Prix
Miami International Autodrome • May 3, 2026
Race start
4:00 PM ET
Best Bet
Kimi Antonelli — Race Winner
Leads into T1, cleanest strategic operation in 2026. Rain risk is real but Mercedes react fastest.
-125
Implied 55.6%
Model Win Probability
Sharp Take
Ferrari and McLaren both arrive with their biggest upgrades of the season after a five-week factory window. If the SF-26 closes the gap, Leclerc is the live threat to Antonelli. Sunday carries an 80%-plus chance of thunderstorms — any mid-race red flag or safety car scrambles the dry-weather call entirely and opens the door for the field.
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Championship Context
Antonelli leads Russell by nine points after three rounds, with Mercedes having won every race in 2026. Charles Leclerc sits third, 23 points off the top, Lewis Hamilton a further eight behind in fourth. Lando Norris is fifth at 25 points, but McLaren as a team are 89 points off the constructors’ lead, a gap that explains exactly why Woking essentially rebuilt their car around a single upgrade window. Max Verstappen is ninth with 12 points as Red Bull continue to find the floor of their 2026 form.
The 2026 Technical Picture at Miami
Z-Mode vs. X-Mode: A Track That Needs Both
Miami‘s 5.41km layout is neither a pure power circuit nor a pure downforce one. The three long straights demand X-Mode drag reduction, while the tight sequence feeding into Turn 17 requires the car to snap back into Z-Mode without losing the rear. That transition efficiency is exactly where the 2026 active aerodynamic systems vary most between teams. Mercedes have proven theirs is the most consistent across different track types. Ferrari‘s Macarena wing could give them a straight-line edge if deployed competitively for the first time this weekend, though whether that gain survives the twisty middle sector is the genuine unknown.
Power Unit Harvesting Under the New Rules
The FIA’s mid-season energy regulation tweak lowers the qualifying recharge limit specifically to eliminate the most aggressive battery harvesting techniques that produced erratic closing speeds in the first three rounds. For race trim, the changes also affect how and when electrical power can be deployed through the lap. As Fred Vasseur said, even a small regulatory shift can move the competitive order, because different PU architectures respond differently. Mercedes’ engine has been the benchmark, but Honda are bringing countermeasures to Miami after static tests on an Aston Martin car at their Sakura facility. No visible gain is expected on track this weekend, but the diagnostic work is being done.
Tire Degradation in 35-Degree Heat
Miami is a rear-limited circuit. The narrower 2026 Pirelli compounds combined with high ambient temperatures and the bumpy asphalt around the Hard Rock Stadium complex put serious thermal load on the rear left. Last year was a clean one-stop, but a safety car in 35-degree heat, or Sunday’s expected thunderstorms forcing tire chaos, rewrites that entirely. Drivers managing Manual Override Mode during energy-depleted phases of the lap will be balancing throttle application against rear tire life simultaneously. That combination is where Antonelli’s instinctive feel for the 2026 cars has made the difference over Russell so far.
Qualifying Prediction
The sprint format compresses preparation to a single 90-minute session before Sprint Qualifying, and Grand Prix qualifying on Saturday runs without a second practice day’s data behind it. In that environment, the driver who can dial in one-lap aero deployment from almost nothing has an immediate advantage. Antonelli at pole is the straightforward call. Leclerc at P2 is grounded in track history. He has a pole here already and his instinct for one-lap deployment has been sharper than Hamilton’s on every weekend except China. Russell rounds out the top three, motivated after watching his championship lead evaporate over three weeks. The McLaren wildcard is real: if the new package lands with immediate pace, Piastri or Norris could split the frontrunners.
Hamilton’s Miami Problem
Hamilton has never finished better than sixth at this track across four previous editions. His Japan regression was jarring after the encouraging signs in China, where he actually outpaced his teammate in race trim. The honest read is that his adaptation to the 2026 car’s Manual Override Mode is still inconsistent. On circuits like Miami that demand aggressive entry rotation he loses tenths he doesn’t lose on flowing circuits. Leclerc in the same car will be aiming for the podium. Hamilton’s realistic target is the top four, and a strong strategy call might be needed to get him there.
Race Prediction
Antonelli is the right favourite. Miami has rewarded front-runners in every dry race held here, and whoever leads into Turn 1 on lap one has won the race three times in five editions. Ferrari’s upgrade closing the straight-line gap could put Leclerc on Antonelli’s gearbox by lap 20, but the Mercedes strategic operation has been cleaner than Ferrari’s on every weekend this season. Piastri rounds out the podium, building on his P2 at Suzuka and his own race win here in 2025. Russell at P4 is the likeliest outcome if Mercedes manage a straightforward afternoon.
The variable that scrambles all of it is Sunday’s weather. An 80%-plus chance of thunderstorms arriving mid-race compresses a clean one-stop into a strategy lottery. A red flag resets the field entirely. The teams that gain are those who can act on a single lap of information — and strategically, Mercedes have been the sharpest operators in 2026. But rain in Miami with untested upgrade packages on track is genuine chaos. If the skies open, the podium calls above are all live to change.
The Long Shot
Lance Stroll. He’s outside the top 10 in the standings as Aston Martin and Honda continue sorting their vibration and reliability problems, but he was on this podium in 2022 and thrives in disrupted, weather-affected races. Honda are bringing PU countermeasures to Miami after using the Sakura static test to diagnose the issues that have plagued the AMR26. No visible gain expected on track yet — their own engineers said as much — but if Sunday goes wet and safety cars cycle the field, Stroll’s race-craft in degraded conditions and his ability to stay clean in chaotic traffic could put him into the points from a grid position nobody is watching. At long odds with an 80% rain forecast, he’s the name worth knowing about.
The Bottom Line
Mercedes have the car, the driver, and the momentum. But rivals have had an opportunity to close the gap, with McLaren and Ferrari brining particularly compelling upgrades. Ferrari’s internal belief in their Miami package is high. McLaren’s upgrade ambition is the biggest they’ve ever run at a single event. And the weather might make all of it irrelevant. This isn’t Race 4 in a settled season. It’s the opening shot of a development war that’s been loading since Japan.
