Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -145, Rangers -1.5 125
• Money Line: Nationals 145, Rangers -165
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 40%
• Texas Rangers - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 30.72%
• Texas Rangers - 69.28%

Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Washington Nationals at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a record of 16-14, are having an above-average season, while the Nationals, with a record of 14-15, are struggling below average. This interleague matchup promises an exciting game between the home team Rangers and the away team Nationals.

The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has had a tough season so far. Heaney has started five games with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 6.26, which is considered horrible. However, his 5.04 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Heaney is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 4.8 batters, and giving up 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks on average.

The Nationals, on the other hand, will start right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams. Williams has had a better season with a win/loss record of 2-0 and an impressive ERA of 2.70. However, his 4.14 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. Williams is projected to pitch around 4.7 innings, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs, striking out 3.0 batters, and giving up 5.6 hits and 1.8 walks on average.

The Rangers have a strong offense, ranking 10th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 2nd in the league, and team home runs, ranking 5th. However, their stolen bases rank 25th, indicating a weakness in that area. The Nationals' offense ranks 15th best in MLB, with a solid team batting average ranking of 6th. However, they struggle in team home runs, ranking 29th, and stolen bases, ranking 14th.

In terms of bullpens, the Rangers rank 19th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Nationals rank last at 30th. This suggests that the Rangers have a slight advantage in the later innings.

Based on the current odds, the Rangers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. The Nationals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +145, giving them an implied win probability of 40%. The Rangers have a high implied team total of 5.02 runs, while the Nationals have an average implied team total of 3.98 runs.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the Rangers' solid offense and the Nationals' struggling bullpen. With Heaney looking to bounce back and Williams aiming to continue his success, it will be a battle on the mound. The Rangers have the advantage, but the Nationals will be looking to defy the odds and secure a victory.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Tallying 80.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Trevor Williams falls in the 12th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

As it relates to his home runs, Nick Senzel has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 28.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Washington Nationals with a 18.8% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney has added a curveball to his repertoire this season and has used it 6.2% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Adolis Garcia's 16.2% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas's 89.8-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 149 games (+19.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 117 games (+16.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has only hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 6 games (-0.15 Units / -1% ROI)

Nationals vs Rangers Prediction: Nationals 3.96 - Rangers 5.76

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.