Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -160, Rangers -1.5 135
• Money Line: Nationals 130, Rangers -150
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 42%
• Texas Rangers - 58%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 39.3%
• Texas Rangers - 60.7%

Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 30, 2024, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Washington Nationals at Globe Life Field. This Interleague matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams. The Rangers, with a record of 15-14, are having an above-average season, while the Nationals, with a record of 14-14, are having an average season.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray, who has been performing well this season. Gray has started five games, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.92. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gray is the #112 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is an average pitcher.

On the other side, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has also been solid this season. With a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.12, Gore has been a reliable presence on the mound. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may regress in the future. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gore is the #59 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is a good pitcher.

The Rangers' offense has been performing well this season, ranking as the #13 best in MLB. They excel in team batting average (#2) and home runs (#5), but struggle in stolen bases (#25). The Nationals' offense, on the other hand, ranks as the #16 best in MLB, with a strong team batting average (#6) but a lack of power in home runs (#29). Both teams have average rankings in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Rangers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of winning. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Rangers as a big favorite with a win probability of 61%. The Rangers have a high implied team total of 4.66 runs, while the Nationals have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's slider rate has decreased by 5.2% from last season to this one (18.8% to 13.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this season (93.6 mph) below where it was last year (95.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Corey Seager is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game as none of the available options for the Washington Nationals share his handedness.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Wyatt Langford hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 80 of their last 146 games (+16.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 129 games (+16.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 40% ROI)

Nationals vs Rangers Prediction: Nationals 4.02 - Rangers 4.75

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