Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DJ Herz - Nationals
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Washington Nationals on September 6, 2024, both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Pirates sitting at 66-74 and the Nationals at 62-78. This matchup marks the second game of their series, and the Pirates will look to build on any momentum from their previous matchup, in which they beat Washington 9-4.

The Pirates are projected to start Luis Ortiz, who has had a solid season with a 3.19 ERA, but advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 4.70. Ortiz, however, is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Nationals offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest strikeouts, which could give the Nationals an edge. Ortiz's struggles include allowing an average of 5.7 hits per game, putting him at risk against a Nationals lineup that has shown resilience.

On the other side, the Nationals will send DJ Herz to the mound. Herz has had a challenging season with a 2-7 record and a 4.09 ERA. His projections indicate he might perform better than his statistics suggest, as his SIERA is a more favorable 3.55. Facing a high-strikeout Pirates offense, Herz's ability to induce swings and misses could play to his advantage, especially given the Pirates rank 5th in the league for strikeouts.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 28th in MLB, struggling to generate runs consistently, while the Nationals hold a slightly better position at 22nd. The Game Total for this matchup is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both offenses. The betting markets see the game as close, with the Pirates favored at -130 and an implied team total of 4.45 runs, suggesting a competitive contest ahead.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over DJ Herz in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Joey Gallo is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

In today's matchup, James Wood is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz's fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (94.3 mph) below where it was last year (95.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 102 games (+14.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 away games (+10.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.96 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.91

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