Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 7/11/2024

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As we head into the third game of this National League East matchup, the New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals at Citi Field on July 11, 2024. The Mets, currently sitting at 46-45, have had an average season, while the Nationals, with a 42-51 record, are having a below-average year. This game could be pivotal for both teams as they look to build momentum.

The Mets will send David Peterson to the mound. Peterson, a left-handed pitcher, has started 7 games this season, boasting a 3-0 record with a 3.58 ERA. However, his 4.56 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Peterson to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs on average today, which is great. However, his projected 4.9 strikeouts and 5.4 hits allowed per game indicate some weaknesses.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore. Gore, also a left-hander, has started 18 games this season with a 6-7 record and a 3.83 ERA. His 3.06 FIP suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better going forward. Projections have him pitching 5.4 innings and allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is average. Gore's projected 6.0 strikeouts per game is a positive, but his 5.2 hits and 1.8 walks allowed are concerning.

Offensively, the Mets have the edge with the 9th best offense in MLB, ranking 4th in home runs and 10th in batting average. Tyrone Taylor has been their standout hitter over the last week, posting a .333 batting average and 1.083 OPS in 4 games. Meanwhile, the Nationals' offense ranks 24th overall, though they do have the 3rd most stolen bases. Luis Garcia has been hot for Washington, hitting .458 with a 1.188 OPS over the last week.

Bullpen-wise, the Mets rank 20th, while the Nationals sit at 29th, indicating potential late-game struggles for both teams. The Mets are favored with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% chance of winning, while the Nationals are at +120, implying a 44% chance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, hitters like Harold Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 2nd-worst projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's sinker rate has jumped by 6.7% from last season to this one (24.6% to 31.3%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In the past week, J.D. Martinez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 9.6% Barrel% of the New York Mets grades them out as the #4 club in the game this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 away games (+4.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.78 vs New York Mets 4.66

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