Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/13/2024

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals prepare for their third game in this interleague series on June 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar positions with identical records of 32-35. Neither team is having a standout season, but each will look to gain an edge in this closely contested matchup at Comerica Park. Yesterday, the Nationals edged out the Tigers with a 7-5 victory, marking a second straight win for Washington in this series.

The Tigers will send right-hander Casey Mize to the mound. Mize has had an underwhelming season with a 1-4 record and a 4.73 ERA. However, his 4.10 FIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see improved performance going forward. Mize's groundball-heavy approach (50% GB rate) might neutralize the Nationals' lack of power, as Washington ranks 28th in MLB with 53 home runs this season.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with left-hander Patrick Corbin, who has struggled mightily this year. Corbin is 1-7 with a dismal 6.15 ERA, although his 4.53 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky as well. Corbin's recent form isn't encouraging; he allowed six earned runs in his last start on June 5.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. Detroit ranks 25th in MLB in overall offense, with particularly poor rankings in team batting average (24th), home runs (23rd), and stolen bases (29th). Washington isn't much better, ranking 26th overall, but they do lead the league in stolen bases, which could be a factor against a Tigers team that struggles to keep runners off base.

The Tigers' bullpen ranks 13th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, a notable improvement over their year-to-date performance, while the Nationals' bullpen ranks 26th, indicating a significant weakness.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a 64% win probability for today's game, higher than the betting market's implied 59%. With Detroit projected to score 5.60 runs, there appears to be value in backing them against a struggling Corbin and a weak Nationals bullpen.

Keep an eye on Riley Greene, Detroit's best hitter, who has been in fine form over the last week with a .918 OPS. Meanwhile, Washington's CJ Abrams has been hot as well, boasting a 1.014 OPS over the same span. This game could hinge on which team's star player delivers in the clutch.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's 90.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 15th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jacob Young's speed has fallen off this season. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.54 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Lane Thomas pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Generating 14.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Casey Mize places him the 19th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The Detroit Tigers have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Jake Rogers, Ryan Kreidler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.3 vs Detroit Tigers 5.6

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.