Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction For 6/29/2024

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Aaron Civale - Rays

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals continue their interleague series on June 29, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, sitting at an even 41-41, are having an average season, while the Nationals, with a 38-43 record, are performing below average. The Rays took the first game of the series yesterday, winning 3-1, and will look to build on that momentum.

On the mound, the Rays will start Aaron Civale. Despite his 5.20 ERA, Civale has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.92 xFIP. His 2-5 record isn't impressive, but he projects to allow just 2.2 earned runs over 5.8 innings today, which bodes well for Tampa Bay. Civale's high flyball rate could be advantageous against a Nationals lineup that ranks 29th in home runs this season.

Jake Irvin will start for the Nationals. Irvin has a solid 3.13 ERA, but his 3.73 SIERA suggests he has been fortunate thus far. He projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.5 innings today. Despite his strong ERA, Irvin's below-average strikeout rate and high walk rate could be problematic against a Rays offense that excels in stolen bases, ranking 5th in MLB.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled this season, ranking 21st overall. However, they have shown some prowess on the basepaths. Isaac Paredes has been the standout hitter for Tampa Bay, boasting a .272 batting average and .810 OPS with 12 home runs and 42 RBIs. Over the last week, Yandy Diaz has been red-hot, hitting .370 with a 1.000 OPS, adding some much-needed spark to the lineup.

For the Nationals, CJ Abrams has been their best hitter, with a .278 batting average and .833 OPS. While the Nationals rank 24th in offense, Abrams' recent performance, including a .409 batting average and 1.136 OPS over the last week, has been a bright spot.

The Rays' bullpen, ranked 15th, is considerably stronger than the Nationals' 28th-ranked bullpen, which could be a deciding factor in a close game. Betting markets have the Rays as slight favorites with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability, but THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 60% chance of winning. The Nationals, meanwhile, are listed at +115, with an implied win probability of 45%.

With both teams looking to gain ground, this matchup should be an intriguing battle. The Rays' balanced approach and stronger bullpen give them an edge, making them a favorable bet according to the projections.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.9-mph average last year has lowered to 86.3-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-worst on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.219) may lead us to conclude that Ben Rortvedt has had some very good luck this year with his .274 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Tampa Bay's 87.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the league: #28 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+14.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 76 games (+8.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.62 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.15

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