Washington Nationals at New York Mets Pick & Prediction – 7/10/2024

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On July 10, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals at Citi Field in the second game of their National League East series. The Mets, sitting at a balanced 45-45 record, are navigating an average season. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with a 42-50 record, are having a below-average year. Despite these standings, both teams aim to gain some ground in their divisional race.

The Mets will send right-hander Luis Severino to the mound. Severino, who has a 3.83 ERA over 17 starts, has managed a 5-3 win/loss record this season. However, his 4.34 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate and could see his performance dip. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Severino is expected to pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and 1.6 walks while striking out 4.2 batters.

The Nationals will counter with lefty Patrick Corbin. Corbin has struggled mightily this season, evidenced by his 1-8 record and 5.49 ERA over 18 starts. Interestingly, his 4.46 xFIP indicates he's been a bit unlucky and might improve. Corbin is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 3.7 earned runs, 6.4 hits, and 1.6 walks while striking out 3.5 batters.

Offensively, the Mets hold the upper hand. Ranked 11th in team batting average and 4th in home runs, their lineup is potent, particularly against a struggling pitcher like Corbin. In contrast, the Nationals' offense is ranked 24th overall, though they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in MLB.

Both bullpens have their weaknesses, but the Mets' relief corps, ranked 19th, is notably better than the Nationals', which sits at 28th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the later innings.

The Mets, favored with a -190 moneyline, have a projected team total of 5.17 runs, while the Nationals, with a +165 moneyline, are projected at 3.83 runs. Given these projections, the Mets' balanced offense and slightly better bullpen give them a significant edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (53.4% compared to 41.5% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Luis Garcia is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino's 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 87 games (+11.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 86 games (+6.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 47% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.36 vs New York Mets 5.86

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