Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction For 7/12/2024

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jackson Rutledge - Nationals
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers, sitting at 54-40, are having a strong season, while the Washington Nationals are floundering at 42-52. As these two teams square off on July 12, 2024, at American Family Field, Milwaukee will look to capitalize on its home-field advantage and superior talent.

Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Brewers. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Peralta ranks as the 12th-best starting pitcher in MLB, putting him in elite company. His 3.95 ERA is solid, but his 3.34 SIERA suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. Peralta's high strikeout rate (30.3%) might be mitigated by the Nationals' low strikeout rate (6th-best in MLB), but his ability to induce flyballs should play well against Washington's power-deficient lineup (ranked 29th in home runs).

Jackson Rutledge, on the other hand, has struggled mightily. With an inflated 9.00 ERA and just one bullpen appearance this year, he's projected to pitch only 4.5 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. Despite a surprisingly low xFIP of 2.64, which suggests he's been unlucky and could improve, his task against Milwaukee’s 7th-best offense looks daunting. The Brewers are particularly strong in batting average (4th-best) and walks (3rd-best), potentially negating Rutledge's control.

Offensively, Rhys Hoskins has been the Brewers' standout performer over the past week, boasting a 1.111 OPS, 3 home runs, and 6 RBIs in just five games. On the Nationals' side, Keibert Ruiz has shined, hitting .381 with a 1.171 OPS and contributing 6 RBIs and 2 home runs in the last week.

Milwaukee's average bullpen (19th in Power Rankings) should hold up against Washington's league-worst bullpen, giving the Brewers a clear edge in late-game situations. This matchup looks heavily tilted in Milwaukee's favor, combining better pitching, hitting, and bullpen performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Milwaukee Brewers have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Jackson Rutledge in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.9-mph average last year has fallen to 86.7-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals (19.7 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Despite posting a .405 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Yelich has had some very good luck given the .054 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a group place 24th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 81 games (+5.25 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 41 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.62 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.11

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