Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins get set to face off against the Washington Nationals on September 3, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings, with the Marlins at 51-86 and the Nationals at 61-76. This National League East matchup marks the first game of their series, and with both clubs looking to salvage their seasons, the stakes are high even if the postseason is out of reach for both.

Going into this contest, the Marlins have won two games in a row, while the Nationals are in the middle of a three-game losing streak. The Marlins are projected to start Max Meyer, who has had a rough season with a 3-4 record and a 5.44 ERA over 10 starts. Although his xFIP of 4.46 suggests he's been a bit unlucky, he still faces a Nationals lineup that has the 6th least strikeouts in MLB, which could neutralize his low strikeout rate of 18.5%.

On the other hand, Patrick Corbin, slated to start for the Nationals, also struggles with a 4-12 record and a 5.50 ERA in 27 starts. His own xFIP of 4.22 indicates he might be due for better outcomes, but with a high-groundball rate of 49%, he faces a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in home runs and has shown minimal power this season.

With a Game Total set at an average 8.5 runs, the Marlins hold a slight edge in the moneyline at -115, implying they have a 51% chance to win. The projections suggest that the Marlins might outscore their implied total of 4.30 runs, leveraging their home advantage, while the Nationals look to improve upon their average implied total of 4.20 runs. As both teams look to turn their seasons around, this matchup promises to be a competitive affair worth watching.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Patrick Corbin has used his non-fastballs 15.4% more often this year (56.9%) than he did last year (41.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

CJ Abrams has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88.1-mph figure last year has dropped off to 84.2-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.5% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 54 games at home (+24.95 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 68 of their last 122 games (+6.70 Units / 4% ROI)
• Connor Norby has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 46% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.31 vs Miami Marlins 4.97

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