Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies Pick For 6/22/2024

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals square off on June 22, 2024, at Coors Field in what is set to be the second game of their series. The Rockies are having a rough season with a 26-50 record, while the Nationals are floating around .500 at 37-38. Given the Rockies' struggles and the Nationals' average performance, betting markets project this game to be a close one, with both teams' moneylines at -110, implying a 50% win probability.

Colorado will send right-hander Cal Quantrill to the mound. Despite his 6-5 record and solid 3.43 ERA, advanced metrics like his 4.53 xFIP suggest he's been fortunate this year. The Rockies' offense, which ranks 16th overall in underlying talent according to THE BAT X, will need to step up. Lately, Nolan Jones has been their standout performer, hitting .438 with a 1.190 OPS over the last week. However, they still rank 24th in home runs, which could be a factor in this game.

For Washington, left-handed Mitchell Parker gets the start. Parker boasts a strong 3.06 ERA but, like Quantrill, his 4.03 xFIP indicates some luck. The Nationals' offense has been one of the weakest in MLB, ranking 27th overall. However, recent form shows promise as Jesse Winker has been hot, batting .400 with a 1.367 OPS over the last week.

From a matchup perspective, Parker's low strikeout rate could be less of an issue against the Rockies, who are 5th in strikeouts. Conversely, Quantrill’s high groundball rate might mitigate the Nationals' lack of power, as they rank 28th in home runs. Both teams have shaky bullpens, with the Rockies ranked 22nd and the Nationals 28th, which could lead to a high-scoring affair, reflected in the game total of 10.5 runs.

Considering the Rockies' offensive potential and the Nationals' recent hot streak, this game is poised to be a tight contest. Bettors should keep an eye on the in-game dynamics, especially once the starters exit.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Keibert Ruiz has been unlucky this year, posting a .228 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .068 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Washington Nationals with a 20.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has utilized his change-up 16.2% more often this year (38.6%) than he did last year (22.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jacob Stallings has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 39 games (+9.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 69 games (+16.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+11.20 Units / 32% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 5.82 vs Colorado Rockies 6.26

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.