Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs square off against the Washington Nationals on September 20, 2024, the stakes are high for the Cubs, who are determined to secure a playoff berth. With a record of 78-75, the Cubs are having an average season but are still in the hunt for a postseason spot. Meanwhile, the Nationals, sitting at 68-85, have had a rough go and are out of playoff contention.

Both teams are coming off the first game of their series, which saw the Cubs assert their dominance. In this second matchup at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will look to extend their momentum.

On the mound for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, a right-handed pitcher who has been consistent this season with a 3.54 ERA. Although his xFIP of 4.09 suggests he may have been a bit lucky, Taillon's low walk rate (4.6 BB%) should help him manage a Nationals lineup ranked 23rd in overall offense. While Taillon's strikeout ability is modest, the Nationals' lack of power (29th in home runs) plays into his strengths as a high-flyball pitcher.

Washington counters with Trevor Williams, whose excellent 2.22 ERA belies underlying metrics like a 3.96 xFIP, indicating potential regression. Williams projects to face a Cubs offense that ranks 12th overall and boasts a solid combination of contact and speed, led by Seiya Suzuki, who has been particularly hot over the last week with a .393 batting average and 1.036 OPS.

While both bullpens have struggled, with Chicago ranked 25th and Washington 27th in the Power Rankings, the Cubs hold the upper hand in this matchup. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives Chicago a projected win probability of 63%, surpassing their implied odds. With a robust offensive projection of 6.06 runs, the Cubs are poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Out of all starters, Trevor Williams's fastball velocity of 88.6 mph grades out in the 2nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Chicago's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Joey Gallo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has averaged 17.6 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 140 games (+7.00 Units / 4% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 67% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 5.02 vs Chicago Cubs 5.89

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