Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves Prediction For 5/30/2024

Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals

May 30, 2024

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 30, 2024
  • Venue: Truist Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Trevor Williams - Nationals
    • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Nationals 185, Braves -220
Runline: Nationals 1.5 -120, Braves -1.5 100
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Washington Nationals - 34% Washington Nationals - 34.37%
Atlanta Braves - 66% Atlanta Braves - 65.63%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Atlanta Braves are set to take on the Washington Nationals on May 30, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 31-22 this season, are having a great season, while the Nationals, with a record of 25-29, are having a below-average season.

The Braves will be the home team, and they have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They have been performing exceptionally well in their home games, and with their strong offense, they are a force to be reckoned with. The Nationals, on the other hand, will be the away team and will have to bring their A-game to compete with the Braves.

Reynaldo Lopez is projected to start for the Braves. He is a right-handed pitcher who has been performing above average this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lopez is ranked as the #90 best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that he has been performing well and is likely to continue his success in this game. Lopez has started 9 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an impressive ERA of 1.75.

The Nationals are projected to start Trevor Williams, another right-handed pitcher. However, Williams has been struggling this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has started 10 games with a perfect win/loss record of 4-0, but his ERA of 2.29 is higher than his 3.73 xFIP, indicating that he may be due for some regression in his performance.

In terms of offense, the Braves have been outstanding this season. They rank as the #6 best offense in MLB and lead the league in team batting average and home runs. Their lineup is filled with power hitters who can change the game with one swing of the bat. On the other hand, the Nationals' offense has been struggling, ranking as the #25 best offense in MLB and second to last in home runs.

Considering the pitching matchup and the offensive capabilities of both teams, the Braves are the clear favorites in this game. They have a strong bullpen, ranked #8 in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Nationals' bullpen ranks at the bottom, #27 in MLB.

The Braves have a high implied team total of 5.02 runs for this game, while the Nationals have a low implied team total of 3.48 runs. This suggests that the oddsmakers expect the Braves' offense to have a productive game, while the Nationals may struggle to score runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Out of all SPs, Trevor Williams's fastball velocity of 88.5 mph grades out in the 1st percentile this year.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Joey Gallo is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The weakest projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.

  • A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average starter, Reynaldo Lopez has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -9.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

  • Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Matt Olson has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

  • Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+17.15 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 50 games (+9.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.15 vs Atlanta Braves 5.52

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+160
15% WSH
-189
85% ATL

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-120
13% UN
9.0/+100
87% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-130
31% WSH
-1.5/+110
69% ATL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
WSH
Team Stats
ATL
4.88
ERA
3.86
.265
Batting Avg Against
.240
1.45
WHIP
1.28
.300
BABIP
.300
9.4%
BB%
8.7%
19.5%
K%
24.5%
72.7%
LOB%
74.1%
.259
Batting Avg
.275
.400
SLG
.502
.719
OPS
.847
.319
OBP
.345
WSH
Team Records
ATL
23-24
Home
30-20
24-29
Road
24-25
31-39
vRHP
35-33
16-14
vLHP
19-12
25-41
vs>.500
34-29
22-12
vs<.500
20-16
5-5
Last10
4-6
9-11
Last20
10-10
13-17
Last30
16-14
T. Williams
R. Kerr
117.2
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
5-7
W-L
N/A
5.20
ERA
N/A
6.88
K/9
N/A
3.06
BB/9
N/A
2.14
HR/9
N/A
74.9%
LOB%
N/A
16.8%
HR/FB%
N/A
5.93
FIP
N/A
5.16
xFIP
N/A
.287
AVG
N/A
17.1%
K%
N/A
7.6%
BB%
N/A
5.02
SIERA
N/A

T. Williams

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/23 ARI
Castellanos N/A
L2-5 N/A
2
7
4
4
0
0
39-62
9/6 WSH
Corbin N/A
L3-4 N/A
5
10
2
2
3
2
61-93
8/31 MIA
Cabrera N/A
W3-1 N/A
4.1
4
1
0
4
0
44-57
8/12 WSH
Fedde N/A
W5-4 N/A
4.1
3
1
1
2
2
31-52
7/25 ARI
Smith N/A
W5-1 N/A
6.1
5
0
0
6
0
73-104

R. Kerr

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
WSH ATL
WSH ATL
Consensus
+195
-230
+160
-189
+185
-225
+154
-185
+194
-235
+160
-190
+195
-235
+165
-195
+185
-225
+158
-190
+180
-225
+155
-190
Open
Current
Book
WSH ATL
WSH ATL
Consensus
+1.5 (-129)
-1.5 (-113)
+1.5 (-129)
-1.5 (+106)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-128)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-128)
-1.5 (+106)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+100)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
9.0 (-102)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-118)
9.0 (-103)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)