Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 7/29/2024

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On July 29, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field in a National League matchup. The D-Backs, sitting at 55-51, are having an above average season and are looking to bolster their playoff chances. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with a 49-57 record, have struggled and are having a below average season.

The Diamondbacks will send Jordan Montgomery to the mound. Montgomery, a left-hander, has started 13 games this year, posting a 7-5 record with a disappointing 6.11 ERA. However, his 4.62 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. In contrast, the Nationals will counter with their own lefty, Mitchell Parker. Parker has been slightly more consistent with a 4.34 ERA across 18 starts, holding a 5-6 Win/Loss record.

Arizona's offense, ranked 8th best overall and 7th in team batting average, will look to capitalize on Parker’s vulnerabilities. The D-Backs have shown decent power, ranking 16th in home runs, and have an average showing in stolen bases, ranking 17th. Ketel Marte has been on fire over the last week, hitting .421 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs, boasting a 1.564 OPS.

The Nationals, on the other hand, struggle offensively, ranking 25th overall. They have some speed on the bases, ranking 3rd in stolen bases, but their power is lacking, placing 29th in home runs. Lane Thomas has been a bright spot recently, hitting .350 with a 1.069 OPS over the last week, but the rest of the lineup needs to step up.

One key matchup to watch will be Jordan Montgomery, a low-strikeout pitcher, facing a Nationals lineup that is tough to strike out, ranking 6th least in strikeouts. This could give Washington an edge in making contact, but the D-Backs' bullpen, ranked 4th best in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, could shut the door late in the game.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs and Arizona favored with a moneyline of -165, the D-Backs have an implied win probability of 60%. Given the strength of Arizona’s offense and bullpen, along with Montgomery's potential for better performance, the D-Backs look well-positioned to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mitchell Parker is projected to throw 82 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Arizona's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for James Wood, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 2nd-weakest projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's curveball usage has jumped by 6.9% from last year to this one (22.2% to 29.1%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 91 games (+8.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.60 Units / 160% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.39 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.29

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