Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/11/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On July 11, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Oracle Park in the final game of their interleague series. The Giants, with a 45-47 record, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays, sitting at 41-50, are struggling with a below-average campaign. Both teams will look to gain momentum as the season progresses.

Jordan Hicks is slated to take the mound for the Giants. Hicks, who has started 18 games this season, holds a 4-5 record with a stellar 3.47 ERA. However, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. Despite being ranked #91 among starting pitchers by advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hicks has been effective at limiting earned runs but struggles with allowing hits and walks—projected at 5.4 and 1.6 per game, respectively.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman will start for the Blue Jays. Gausman, with a 6-8 record and a 4.64 ERA, has been somewhat unlucky this year as indicated by his 3.68 xFIP. Ranked #52 among starters, Gausman is expected to strike out 6.7 batters while allowing 2.5 earned runs over an average of 5.9 innings, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th in MLB both overall and in team batting average, but they struggle with power, ranking 21st in home runs. Conversely, the Blue Jays are 21st in overall offense and 28th in home runs, indicating significant struggles at the plate. Over the last week, Heliot Ramos has been the standout for the Giants, hitting .381 with a 1.095 OPS and notching two home runs. For the Blue Jays, Spencer Horwitz has been red-hot, batting .571 with a 1.290 OPS over his last five games.

One key factor in this matchup could be the bullpens. The Giants boast the 2nd-best bullpen according to Power Rankings, while the Blue Jays' bullpen ranks 24th. This disparity may prove crucial in a game projected to be tight, with the Giants having a slight edge in the betting markets.

With a game total set at 7.5 runs, expect a low-scoring affair where pitching and bullpen depth might make the difference. The Giants' bullpen advantage and slightly better offensive metrics could give them the edge in this closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman was rolling in his last game started and posted 10 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Davis Schneider has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks as the 8th-best batter in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Jordan Hicks (51.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Toronto's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As it relates to his home runs, LaMonte Wade Jr. has been unlucky this year. His 9.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.6.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+12.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+7.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.92 vs San Francisco Giants 4.21

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