Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 31, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Twins, currently sitting at 73-61, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays languish at 66-71, struggling to find consistency. Yesterday, the Twins secured a win in the first game of the series, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 6th in MLB.

On the mound, the Twins will start Zebby Matthews, who has been impressive in his limited appearances, posting a 3.00 ERA this season despite a higher xFIP of 4.27. Matthews is projected to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs on average, which suggests he could do well against a Blue Jays offense that has hit just 94 home runs this year, ranking them 27th in MLB. His high flyball rate could work in his favor against a lineup that struggles with power.

In contrast, the Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios, who has been inconsistent despite a respectable 3.72 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.35 indicates he might have been somewhat fortunate this season. Berrios is projected to allow 3.2 earned runs in 5.2 innings, which keeps him in the below-average category.

The projections favor the Twins, who are expected to score 5.30 runs, compared to the Blue Jays’ projected 5.14 runs. With the Twins ranking 1st in batting average and 8th in home runs, they have the firepower to capitalize on Berrios’ vulnerabilities. Given these dynamics, Minnesota looks primed to extend their winning streak and solidify their position in the standings.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios's 2160-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 25th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Joey Loperfido hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Zebby Matthews has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 9.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt Wallner's true offensive skill to be a .324, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .101 difference between that mark and his actual .425 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected lineup today (.312 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .324 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+11.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.09 vs Minnesota Twins 5.35

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