Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/24/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
• Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 135, Royals 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Blue Jays -120, Royals 100
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 52%
• Kansas City Royals - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 53.71%
• Kansas City Royals - 46.29%

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 24, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. As the home team, the Royals will look to continue their successful season with a record of 14-10, while the Blue Jays aim to build on their above-average season with a record of 13-11. This American League matchup promises an exciting game between two competitive teams.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Alec Marsh, who has been performing well this season. With a 3-0 win/loss record and an impressive 3.22 ERA, Marsh has been a key asset for the Royals. However, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Marsh is considered one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB, ranking at #287 out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that his performance may not be sustainable going forward.

Opposing Marsh on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez for the Blue Jays. Rodriguez has also had a solid season, boasting a 2.35 ERA. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a 6.62 xERA and a 4.38 FIP, suggest that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank as the 13th best team in MLB, while the Blue Jays rank 14th. The Royals have struggled in terms of home runs, ranking 26th in the league, but have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 4th. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have displayed a strong batting average, ranking 5th in the league. Both teams possess average offensive talent overall.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Blue Jays have the advantage, ranking 7th best in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Royals, however, rank 20th, indicating a weaker bullpen performance.

Considering the projections, the Royals have a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, while the Blue Jays have a slightly higher implied team total of 4.61 runs. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.

With the Royals having a home-field advantage and the Blue Jays being the away team, the betting markets expect a close game. The Royals currently have a moneyline of +100, suggesting a 48% win probability, while the Blue Jays have a moneyline of -120, indicating a 52% win probability.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yariel Rodriguez to throw 84 pitches in today's game (9th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

When estimating his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 8th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

With 7 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Alec Marsh ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Yariel Rodriguez will have the handedness advantage over Salvador Perez in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+13.17 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 141 games (+9.14 Units / 6% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction: Blue Jays 5.16 - Royals 4.52

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