Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/11/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 11, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Orioles have struggled early in the season with a record of 5-8, while the Blue Jays sit at a solid 8-6. Both teams are looking to turn things around, especially after the Orioles were shut out 9-0 in their last game. The Blue Jays also faced defeat recently, losing 4-3.

On the mound, the Orioles are projected to start Tomoyuki Sugano, who has had an interesting season. While his ERA stands at an impressive 2.89, advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 5.25. Sugano is a high-flyball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a Blue Jays offense that ranks among the lowest in home runs this season, with just 6 total. He projects to throw around 5.5 innings and allow approximately 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits (5.6 projected) could be a concern.

Bowden Francis, the projected starter for the Blue Jays, has also been effective with a 3.18 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.37 suggests room for regression as well. He has been solid in his last outing, allowing 2 earned runs over 5 innings with 6 strikeouts. However, like Sugano, Francis also faces a daunting challenge against an Orioles offense that ranks 16th in the league.

With both teams fighting for momentum, the Orioles' bullpen is ranked 6th in MLB, which could offer a late-game advantage. Despite their recent struggles, the projections lean slightly in favor of Baltimore, making this a compelling matchup for bettors. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a close contest in what promises to be an engaging start to this series.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's 91.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.4-mph drop off from last year's 92.8-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (16.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Because groundball batters hold a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Tomoyoki Sugano and his 34.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today's game being matched up with 1 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

This season, Jordan Westburg has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.5 mph compared to last year's 93.3 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Will Wagner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 69% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.