Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 7/5/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 5, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, both teams find themselves on different ends of the spectrum this season. The Mariners are having an above-average season with a 48-41 record, positioning them solidly in the American League standings. In contrast, the Blue Jays are struggling with a 39-48 record, reflecting a challenging season so far.

Seattle will send right-hander Luis Castillo to the mound. Castillo, ranked the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, boasts a respectable 3.87 ERA despite a 6-9 win/loss record. Castillo's projections for today are promising, with an expected 6.1 innings pitched and only 2.3 earned runs allowed on average. His high-flyball style (38% FB rate) may play to his advantage against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 26th in home runs this season, suggesting they may struggle to capitalize on Castillo’s flyballs.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Kevin Gausman, who holds a 4.75 ERA and a 6-7 record. Gausman's peripherals, however, hint at better days ahead; his 3.72 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky this season. The projections see him pitching 5.9 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed, and his strikeout potential (7.3 projected Ks) could be a key factor against a Mariners offense that ranks 27th in the league. Seattle’s offensive struggles are evident as they sit dead last in team batting average and near the bottom in overall offensive Power Rankings, despite being 12th in home runs.

Both bullpens are among the worst in MLB, with the Mariners ranked 25th and the Blue Jays 26th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to some late-game drama, especially if the starters can't go deep into the game.

With the Mariners favored at -145 and an implied win probability of 57%, bettors might find value in backing Seattle, given their stronger season performance and Castillo's favorable matchup against Toronto's power-depleted offense. However, keep an eye on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been red-hot over the past week with a .391 batting average and 1.179 OPS, potentially providing a spark for the Blue Jays.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman's 93.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph decrease from last season's 94.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Rating 8th-steepest in the majors this year, Toronto Blue Jays bats as a unit have put up a 13.8° launch angle (an advanced standard to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to league average, Luis Castillo has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jorge Polanco has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 87.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+14.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 66 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 44% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.81 vs Seattle Mariners 3.97

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