Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Prediction For 6/26/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 26, 2024, at Fenway Park, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Red Sox have been enjoying a solid season with a 43-37 record, positioning themselves as contenders. Conversely, the Blue Jays, with a 36-43 record, have struggled and are not currently contending for a playoff spot.

The Red Sox will send Kutter Crawford to the mound. Crawford, who has started 16 games this season, holds a 3-6 record with a respectable 3.54 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Crawford is ranked as the 68th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating he's above average. However, his projections for this game show some vulnerabilities, such as allowing 5.4 hits and 1.2 walks on average.

For the Blue Jays, Yariel Rodriguez will get the start. Rodriguez has a rough 0-1 record in his five starts this season and an ERA of 4.11. His underlying stats, including a 5.84 xERA, suggest he's been fortunate to avoid worse results. The projections for Rodriguez are not favorable, with a forecast of 4.2 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and 1.9 walks.

Boston’s offense, ranked 5th in MLB in both overall talent and batting average, should find opportunities against Rodriguez. The Red Sox also rank 11th in home runs and 5th in stolen bases, showcasing a well-rounded attack. Jarren Duran has been on fire, hitting .429 with a 1.143 OPS over the last week.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays' offense has been a sore spot, ranking 23rd overall, 22nd in batting average, 26th in home runs, and 24th in stolen bases. Spencer Horwitz has been a bright spot recently, hitting .375 with a 1.333 OPS over the last week.

Both teams' bullpens have struggled, with the Red Sox ranked 22nd and the Blue Jays 24th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a higher-scoring game, aligning with the game total of 9.5 runs.

The Red Sox enter as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% win probability. Given the strengths of their offense and Crawford's above-average status, Boston appears well-positioned to take the third game of the series against a struggling Blue Jays squad.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Throwing 77.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Yariel Rodriguez checks in at the 7th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kutter Crawford in the 85th percentile among all starters in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.78 vs Boston Red Sox 5.56

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.