Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 7/31/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paolo Espino - Blue Jays
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles, currently holding a 63-44 record, are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays, who are struggling at 50-57, on July 31, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This American League East matchup is the fourth game in the series between these two teams. The Orioles are enjoying a great season, while the Blue Jays are having a below-average year. Baltimore leads the division and aims to solidify their position, whereas Toronto is trying to claw their way back to relevance.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer, while the Blue Jays will counter with lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Kremer, known for his consistent performances, will face a Toronto lineup that ranks 20th in team batting average and 27th in both home runs and stolen bases. This stark contrast in offensive productivity could give Kremer an edge, especially considering Baltimore's powerful offense, which ranks 7th in batting average and leads the league in home runs.

On the offensive side, Cedric Mullins has been hot for Baltimore, recording a .333 batting average and a 1.178 OPS over the last week, with 5 hits, 6 RBIs, and 1 home run in 7 games. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been carrying the Blue Jays, hitting .500 with a 1.608 OPS, 12 hits, 10 runs, and 4 home runs over the same span.

Kikuchi will have his hands full dealing with an Orioles lineup that can go deep at any moment. Conversely, Kremer could capitalize on Toronto's offensive struggles. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Baltimore's win probability might be higher than the implied odds suggest, making the Orioles an intriguing pick for bettors.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season's 92.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to average, Grayson Rodriguez has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.2 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 95 games (+11.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 37 games (+19.10 Units / 47% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+9.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.32 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.75

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