Texas Rangers vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 4/1/2025

Texas Rangers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Texas Rangers on April 1, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Reds, currently 2-2, are looking to gain momentum after a mixed start to the season. Meanwhile, the Rangers, boasting a record of 3-2, have made a strong impression early on. Notably, the Reds won yesterday's game against the Rangers, adding pressure on Texas to bounce back.

On the mound, the Reds are set to start Carson Spiers, who ranks as the 433rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His projections indicate a rough outing, as he is expected to pitch an average of just 4.7 innings while allowing about 2.9 earned runs. This presents a significant challenge, especially against a Rangers lineup that, although ranked 24th in offensive capabilities, has shown they can capitalize on pitching mistakes.

The Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who has been impressive this season, ranking 79th among starting pitchers. Eovaldi's ERA stands at a commendable 3.00, and he projects to pitch 5.3 innings with an expected 2.5 earned runs allowed. His ability to limit damage could be crucial, particularly given the Reds' offense ranks just 20th in MLB.

While both teams have their struggles, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs. The Reds, on the other hand, are underdogs at +120, with a projected average of 4.19 runs. Given Eovaldi's strong start and the Reds' inconsistent offense, it may be a challenging day for Cincinnati as they look to even the series.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's 2188-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 17th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Wyatt Langford has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 17.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 24.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Tallying 14.3 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Carson Spiers ranks in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Since the start of last season, Jake Fraley's 3.2% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 9th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 149 games (+14.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.35 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jonah Heim has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Carson Spiers - Reds

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