Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 5/25/2025

As the Chicago White Sox host the Texas Rangers on May 25, 2025, both teams are looking to shake off frustrating seasons. The White Sox sit at 17-35, struggling with the worst offense in MLB, while the Rangers, slightly better at 25-28, also find themselves underperforming. This matchup is particularly significant as it’s the third game in their series, with the White Sox winning the previous game.

Starting for the White Sox is Davis Martin, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rocky season with a 2-5 record. Despite a solid ERA of 3.49, Martin's 4.29 xFIP suggests he may be due for regression. He’s projected to allow 2.8 earned runs and pitch 5.2 innings. His performance could be challenged by a Rangers offense that, although ranked 27th, features hitters who are unlikely to draw many walks—an area where Martin excels.

On the mound for the Rangers is Patrick Corbin, a left-handed pitcher with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 3.59. However, similar to Martin, Corbin's 4.50 xFIP indicates he might not be as effective as his current statistics suggest. With projections suggesting both pitchers will struggle to limit runs, this game could turn into a battle of the bullpens, where both teams rank among the worst in MLB.

Interestingly, the Rangers have a projected team total of 4.27 runs, which signifies that oddsmakers expect them to capitalize on the White Sox's shortcomings. As both teams face off, it may come down to which pitcher can better navigate their respective offensive struggles, setting the stage for an intriguing matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Patrick Corbin's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (63.7% compared to 58.6% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Josh Jung has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last year's 92.3-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Chicago White Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Austin Slater tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Patrick Corbin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+15.95 Units / 39% ROI)
• Chase Meidroth has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.84, Chicago White Sox 5.05

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.