Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 13, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. Currently, the Mariners sit at 74-73, just above .500, while the Rangers trail at 71-76. Both teams are looking to find momentum as they continue their series, with the Mariners hoping to bounce back after a narrow 5-4 loss to the Rangers just a day prior.

On the mound, Seattle will send Emerson Hancock to the hill. Hancock has struggled this season, ranking 296th among MLB starters, with a Win/Loss record of 3-4 and an ERA of 4.76. His projections suggest he could allow an average of 2.3 earned runs over 5.2 innings, but he has also been fortunate this year, as indicated by his higher xERA of 6.16. The Mariners' offense, which ranks 24th in the league, has struggled to provide consistent run support, averaging a mere 3.26 runs according to recent projections.

In contrast, the Rangers will counter with Jacob deGrom, who is making his first start since the month of April after being sidelined due to injury. He projects to allow just 1.2 earned runs today, which is elite, and his strikeout potential remains strong at 6.0 batters per game.

Notably, projections suggest that the Rangers may hold an edge in this contest, as they are projected to score around 3.99 runs, compared to the Mariners' low average. With the Mariners' bullpen ranked 24th in MLB, and the Rangers' bullpen standing at 7th, the balance of power seems to tilt toward Texas, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Given the 1.18 difference between Jacob deGrom's 2.67 ERA and his 1.49 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season and figures to see positive regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

In the past two weeks, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luke Raley has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 95.5-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 56% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.99 vs Seattle Mariners 3.26

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