Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks 5/17/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated American League East matchup, the Toronto Blue Jays will play host to the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre on May 17, 2024. The Blue Jays, with a season record of 19-23, are looking to improve their below-average performance, while the Rays, with a record of 23-22, have been having an average season.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt, who has shown above-average performance this season according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Bassitt has started 8 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 5.06, which is not particularly impressive. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Rays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Alexander has started 8 games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.45. Similar to Bassitt, his 4.62 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

The Blue Jays will rely on their offense, which ranks as the 21st best in MLB this season. However, they have excelled in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league. Their best hitter this season has been Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has made a significant impact with his performance at the plate.

The Rays, on the other hand, boast a stronger offense, ranking 16th best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league. Isaac Paredes has been their standout hitter this season, recording impressive numbers in RBIs, home runs, and batting average.

According to our projections, the Blue Jays are heavily favored in this game, with a projected win probability of 62%. Their offensive firepower, combined with Bassitt's expected solid performance, gives them an advantage over the Rays. Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have a high implied team total of 4.81 runs for this game, while the Rays have a lower implied team total of 3.69 runs.

However, it's important to note that projections are not always spot on, and there are factors that can influence the outcome of a game. Baseball is a game full of unpredictable moments and surprises, so the Rays still have a chance to defy the odds and come out on top.

As the game unfolds, fans will be treated to a clash of two division rivals with different strengths and weaknesses. The Blue Jays will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and offensive prowess, while the Rays will aim to rely on their pitching and find ways to neutralize the Blue Jays' potent lineup.

It's bound to be an exciting matchup, full of twists and turns, and fans on both sides will be eager to see how it plays out. The first game of this series promises to set the tone for the battles to come between these two teams.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Tyler Alexander faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his home runs, Jose Siri has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 34.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Josh Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

In his previous GS, Chris Bassitt turned in a great performance and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+13.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.84 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.76

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.