Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/3/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays continue their series on July 3, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a 47-39 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays sit at an even 42-42, reflecting a more average performance. The Royals are projected to start Michael Wacha, who holds a 3.91 ERA over 14 starts this year. Wacha, the #78 ranked starting pitcher in MLB, boasts an above-average season despite his 4-6 Win/Loss record. On the mound for the Rays will be Ryan Pepiot, the #53 ranked starting pitcher. Pepiot has shown his potential with a 3.72 xFIP, indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky this season, as his 4.40 ERA suggests.

Offensively, the Royals rank 15th overall, with notable strengths in team batting average (13th) and stolen bases (7th). Vinnie Pasquantino has been a standout performer over the last week, hitting .435 with a 1.179 OPS, contributing 10 hits, 4 runs, 8 RBIs, and 2 home runs in just 6 games.

The Rays, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 20th overall and particularly low in team home runs (25th). However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in MLB. Jose Caballero has been a bright spot recently, hitting .357 with a 1.114 OPS over the past week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Royals have a slight edge with a projected win probability of 51%. With both teams having a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, expect a competitive game with plenty of action. This matchup showcases a solid pitching duel and the Royals’ slightly more potent offense, potentially giving them the upper hand.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Isaac Paredes has had some very good luck this year. His .359 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .306.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Tampa Bay's 87.9-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #28 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Vinnie Pasquantino has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.4% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.65 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 82 games (+24.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.70 Units / 32% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.8 vs Kansas City Royals 4.64

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.