Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/1/2024

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays

Jun 1, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: June 1, 2024
  • Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Taj Bradley - Rays
    • Kyle Bradish - Orioles

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rays 145, Orioles -165
Runline: Rays 1.5 -150, Orioles -1.5 130
Over/Under Total: 8 -105

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Tampa Bay Rays - 40% Tampa Bay Rays - 38.13%
Baltimore Orioles - 60% Baltimore Orioles - 61.87%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On June 1, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays in an American League East matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a season record of 36-19, are having a great season, while the Rays, with a record of 28-30, are having a below-average season.

The Orioles are projected to start Kyle Bradish, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing exceptionally well this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bradish is the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.75. However, his 3.10 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Rays are projected to start Taj Bradley, also a right-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bradley is the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.13. Similar to Bradish, Bradley's 4.74 xERA indicates that he may have been fortunate in his performances and could face challenges going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Orioles have been impressive this season. They rank as the 6th best offense in MLB and have an average team batting average (14th), home run ranking (17th), and stolen base ranking (17th). On the other hand, the Rays offense has struggled, ranking as the 25th best in MLB. However, they have a good team batting average (9th) and excel in home runs (4th) and stolen bases (2nd).

Considering the pitching matchup, the Orioles have an advantage with Bradish's strong performances. Additionally, the Orioles have a solid bullpen with a ranking of 21st in MLB, while the Rays boast a strong bullpen ranking of 6th.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are favored to win with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Rays are the underdogs with a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%. The Orioles have a high implied team total of 4.44 runs, while the Rays have a lower implied team total of 3.56 runs.

With Bradish's impressive pitching and the Orioles' strong offense, they have a good chance of securing a victory in this game. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on the field. The matchup between these two teams promises an exciting game for fans and an intriguing opportunity for sports bettors.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all starting pitchers, Taj Bradley's fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is in the 92nd percentile this year.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Isaac Paredes is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#1-worst of all teams today).

  • This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all teams in the majors.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to the average hurler, Kyle Bradish has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -8.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

  • Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Ryan Mountcastle's 12% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) is in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.64 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.42

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+137
12% TB
-161
88% BAL

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-112
2% UN
8.0/-108
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-155
2% TB
-1.5/+130
98% BAL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TB
Team Stats
BAL
3.88
ERA
4.12
.230
Batting Avg Against
.243
1.20
WHIP
1.28
.282
BABIP
.299
7.7%
BB%
8.3%
24.0%
K%
23.9%
73.2%
LOB%
73.2%
.256
Batting Avg
.251
.443
SLG
.420
.770
OPS
.737
.327
OBP
.318
TB
Team Records
BAL
27-27
Home
30-22
23-23
Road
30-17
33-41
vRHP
44-26
17-9
vLHP
16-13
26-28
vs>.500
37-25
24-22
vs<.500
23-14
6-4
Last10
4-6
10-10
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
15-15
T. Bradley
K. Bradish
74.2
Innings
121.2
16
GS
22
5-7
W-L
7-6
5.67
ERA
3.18
11.93
K/9
8.43
3.13
BB/9
2.52
1.69
HR/9
0.89
64.8%
LOB%
78.6%
17.3%
HR/FB%
11.2%
4.14
FIP
3.66
3.48
xFIP
3.82
.261
AVG
.229
30.0%
K%
23.0%
7.9%
BB%
6.9%
3.54
SIERA
4.02

T. Bradley

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

K. Bradish

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 MIN
Bundy N/A
W9-4 N/A
4
6
4
4
3
2
38-70
4/29 BOS
Hill N/A
L1-3 N/A
6
5
3
2
2
1
52-81

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TB BAL
TB BAL
Consensus
+140
-162
+137
-161
+140
-166
+140
-166
+136
-162
+134
-158
+132
-155
+132
-155
+140
-165
+143
-170
+145
-175
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
TB BAL
TB BAL
Consensus
+1.5 (-159)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-159)
-1.5 (+131)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-117)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (+105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)