Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/14/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays at Truist Park on June 14, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Braves, currently at 36-30, are having an above-average season, while the Rays, at 33-36, are experiencing a below-average year. The Braves hold a significant advantage with Chris Sale, the #7 best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, taking the mound against the Rays' Zack Littell, who is considered an average pitcher.

Sale's projections are impressive: he is expected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 7.5 batters on average. His skill set puts him in elite territory, despite his projected 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks allowed. On the other hand, Littell's projections are less favorable, with an anticipated 4.6 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and only 3.8 strikeouts. His projected 5.3 hits and 1.0 walks allowed further indicate potential struggles.

Offensively, the Braves rank 13th in team batting average, 19th in home runs, and 28th in stolen bases. These figures position them as average in batting and power but significantly below average in speed. Marcell Ozuna has been a hot hand for the Braves recently, hitting .417 with a 1.003 OPS over the last week.

In contrast, the Rays' offense ranks 22nd in team batting average and 28th in home runs, reflecting their struggles at the plate. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th. Ben Rortvedt has been the Rays' standout hitter over the past week, sporting a .364 batting average and a .916 OPS.

With the Braves as big betting favorites and an implied win probability of 65%, they are expected to leverage their edge on the mound and their slightly better offensive capabilities. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting an average scoring affair. For those looking to place a wager, backing the Braves seems a prudent choice given their projected advantage in this matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.3-mph decrease from last year's 93.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Randy Arozarena has been unlucky this year, notching a .271 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .068 deviation.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Tampa Bay's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the best in MLB: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average pitcher, Chris Sale has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.3 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Michael Harris II is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.16 vs Atlanta Braves 5.34

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