Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 7/25/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On July 25, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre for the third game in their series. The Blue Jays are struggling this season with a 46-55 record, placing them well below average. In contrast, the Rays sit at an even 51-51, a testament to a middling season. Both teams are in the American League East, and while a division title might be out of reach, each game remains a critical opportunity to climb the standings.

Chris Bassitt gets the nod for Toronto. Bassitt, who has started 20 games this season with an 8-8 record, holds a solid 3.71 ERA. However, peripherals like his 4.23 xERA suggest there might be some regression on the horizon. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters—a good overall projection. On the offensive side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been scorching hot, batting .444 with 4 home runs and a 1.667 OPS over his last 7 days, adding much-needed firepower to a generally lackluster Blue Jays offense, which ranks 22nd in MLB.

Taj Bradley will take the mound for the Rays. Despite starting only 13 games this year, he boasts an impressive 2.63 ERA. Bradley’s projections foresee 5.4 innings, conceding 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. Much like Bassitt, advanced metrics such as his 3.30 xFIP hint that he, too, has benefited from a bit of luck. Randy Arozarena has been the standout for Tampa Bay, delivering a .381 batting average and a 1.432 OPS over the last week.

Despite the evenly set -110 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Blue Jays a slight edge with a 55% win probability, suggesting there's value in backing Toronto. Their offense ranks poorly in most categories, but Guerrero Jr.'s recent form could tip the scales in their favor. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's offense, ranking 21st, has shown inconsistency, making this a fascinating matchup of two potential breakout performances against struggling lineups.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's change-up rate has risen by 13.9% from last year to this one (13.9% to 27.8%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ben Rortvedt's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 87.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 78-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 25.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

George Springer has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .228 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .287 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.45 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+11.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Taj Bradley has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 45% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.9 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.05

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