Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 7/6/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays in an American League matchup on July 6, 2024, at Globe Life Field. Both teams are having middling seasons, with the Rangers sitting at 40-48 and the Rays at 44-44. While the Rangers are underperforming, the Rays are hovering around average, providing an intriguing setup for the second game in their series.

On the mound, the Rangers will start lefty Andrew Heaney, who hasn't been particularly impressive this season. Heaney holds a 3-9 Win/Loss record across 16 starts with a slightly above-average ERA of 4.04. However, advanced stats aren't kind to Heaney, ranking him as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, expects Heaney to pitch around five innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs on average, while striking out 5.4 batters.

Conversely, the Rays will counter with right-hander Taj Bradley, who has shown more promise. Bradley's 3.42 ERA and a 3-4 Win/Loss record in 10 starts reflect a solid, if lucky, season. His ranking as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB supports this. Bradley's projections suggest he'll pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 5.7 batters. However, his expected ERA of 4.35 and FIP of 4.04 indicate he might regress.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Rangers rank 21st in overall offensive performance, with their batting average and home run totals both sitting at 18th. Their best hitter over the last week has been Corey Seager, who boasts a .385 batting average and a 1.313 OPS in his last four games. Meanwhile, the Rays are slightly better offensively, ranking 19th overall but a disappointing 26th in home runs. Brandon Lowe has been their standout hitter recently, with a .316 batting average and a 1.330 OPS in his last five games.

In the bullpen, Tampa Bay holds the edge with the 11th best ranking compared to Texas' 21st. Both teams' bullpens reflect their broader season performances, suggesting the Rays might have the upper hand in the late innings.

Betting markets have this game as a coin flip, with both teams' moneylines set at -110. Given the evenly matched odds and the nuances of their pitching and offensive stats, this game promises to be a close contest. Keep an eye on how each team's starters fare, as their performances could very well tip the scales.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Compared to the average starter, Taj Bradley has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 3.1 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jose Siri has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Alex Jackson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.1% more often this season (47.4%) than he did last year (42.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Wyatt Langford has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88.5-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+15.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 76 games (+20.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+9.40 Units / 188% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.17 vs Texas Rangers 4.36

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