Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Sulser - Rays
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 9, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position with an 85-58 record, showcasing a solid performance throughout the season. In contrast, the Rays, sitting at 71-72, have had an average season and are not in contention for a playoff spot. This matchup marks the first game of the series, adding a layer of intensity as both teams look to establish an early advantage.

The Phillies are looking to rebound after their last outing, a blowout loss to the Miami Marlins. They will start Cristopher Sanchez on the bump tonight. Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher, has been a standout this season, ranking as the 23rd best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a solid ERA of 3.45 and projections suggesting he’ll pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing just 2.0 earned runs, Sanchez poses a daunting challenge for the Rays' lineup. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (59% groundball rate) is favorable against a Rays offense that lacks power, having logged only 97 home runs this year—the 5th fewest in MLB.

On the other hand, Cole Sulser is projected to take the mound for the Rays. With an ERA of 4.35 and an expected pitching performance that only averages 3.2 innings, the Phillies' powerful offense, which ranks 5th in MLB and has hit 124 home runs this season, may exploit Sulser's high-flyball tendencies (57% flyball rate).

With an average Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Phillies favored at a moneyline of -195, the expectation is for Philadelphia to capitalize on their offensive prowess and Sanchez’s strong pitching to secure a victory in this Interleague matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez (55.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brandon Marsh has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 70 of their last 122 games (+14.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 games at home (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.53 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.66

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.