Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Pick For 7/21/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays are set to clash on July 21, 2024, at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing American League East matchup. The Yankees, with a strong season record of 59-41, are looking to extend their dominance, while the Rays, sitting at an even 49-49, aim to find consistency.

On the mound for the Yankees will be Marcus Stroman, a right-hander with a 7-4 record and a solid 3.51 ERA. However, Stroman's underlying stats, including a 4.77 xFIP, suggest he might regress as the season progresses. Despite this, his ability to induce ground balls (50% GB rate) could neutralize the Rays' lackluster power, as Tampa Bay ranks 26th in MLB with just 86 home runs.

Opposing Stroman is Shane Baz for the Rays. Baz has struggled in his limited starts this season, posting a 5.23 ERA and a 0-1 record. Yet, his 3.76 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and could improve. Baz's high flyball rate (47% FB rate) could spell trouble against the Yankees' powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 140 home runs. However, Baz's excellent control (4.4% BB rate) might mitigate the Yankees' patient approach at the plate, as New York leads MLB in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Yankees have a significant edge. They boast the 4th best offense according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, and rank 2nd in home runs. In contrast, the Rays' offense ranks 24th and struggles with power, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th.

With the Yankees as the betting favorite at -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, they are expected to come out on top. Their high implied team total of 4.62 runs aligns with their offensive prowess, making them a strong pick for this matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Batters such as Brandon Lowe with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Marcus Stroman who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today, Isaac Paredes is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 46.1% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2196 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2249 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Anthony Volpe is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Yankees projected batting order projects as the best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games (+14.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 22 of his last 45 games (+23.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.39 vs New York Yankees 5.45

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