Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros Pick For 8/4/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Bigge - Rays
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays meet for the third game of their series on August 4, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective standings. The Astros currently sit at 57-53, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays are slightly behind at 56-54, having an average season. The Astros are in a tight race for a Wild Card spot, making this matchup critical.

In their last encounter on August 3, the Astros suffered a disappointing 6-1 loss to the Rays, who showcased their strength by capitalizing on the Astros' pitching. The Astros are projected to start Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled this season with a 4-9 record and a poor 5.58 ERA. However, his 4.43 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Arrighetti is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs.

On the other side, the Rays will send Hunter Bigge to the mound. Bigge has been effective in limited appearances, sporting an impressive 1.69 ERA, although his xFIP of 2.79 indicates he might not maintain such success. Bigge's projection of just 1.0 inning pitched today could limit his impact, especially against an Astros offense that ranks 2nd in MLB in batting average.

Despite the Astros' recent loss, they have been strong offensively, particularly with Yordan Alvarez leading the charge. Meanwhile, the projections suggest that the Astros are favored to score around 4.40 runs, compared to the Rays' 4.26. Given the Astros' overall talent and their strong bullpen, they are positioned to bounce back in this pivotal game. With a current moneyline of -160, the odds reflect a solid opportunity for bettors to back the Astros as they seek redemption against the Rays.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Jose Caballero is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 5 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Kameron Misner, Alex Jackson, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Generating 14.5 outs per game per started this year on average, Spencer Arrighetti falls in the 14th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Chas McCormick has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 82.2-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 100 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.65 Units / 133% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.12 vs Houston Astros 4.83

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