St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 1, 2024, this Interleague matchup carries significant importance for both teams. The Yankees, currently holding a strong record of 79-57, are enjoying a fantastic season and are well-positioned in the playoff race, while the Cardinals sit at a mediocre 68-68, struggling to find consistency. In their last outing, the Yankees suffered a surprising loss to the Cardinals, as their starting pitching let them down.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher with a respectable ERA of 3.89 this year. Despite an 8-10 record, Cortes ranks as the 50th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, indicating that he possesses solid talent. He has averaged 5.5 innings pitched this season and projects to allow 2.4 earned runs today, which bodes well against a Cardinals offense that ranks 18th in the league.

Facing off against Cortes is Miles Mikolas, a right-handed pitcher who has had a tougher campaign with a 5.23 ERA and an xFIP of 4.16. Mikolas's performance suggests he has been unlucky, but he still ranks as below average. He projects to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing 3.2 earned runs, which could spell trouble against the Yankees' 1st ranked offense, known for their power with 2nd most home runs in MLB.

With the Yankees heavily favored, their implied total of 5.22 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Mikolas's struggles. As the series continues, expect the Yankees to leverage their strengths against a Cardinals team searching for answers.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has utilized his curveball 8.2% less often this year (11.8%) than he did last year (20%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Pedro Pages has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 78.4-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge's true offensive ability to be a .429, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .054 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .483 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

New York Yankees hitters as a unit rank in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 10.8% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 105 games (+17.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games (+4.60 Units / 6% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 21 games at home (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.31 vs New York Yankees 5.8

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