St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction, Picks 4/28/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Apr 28, 2024

New York Mets

New York Mets
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 28, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
    • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Run Line: Cardinals 1.5 -200, Mets -1.5 170
  • Money Line: Cardinals 105, Mets -125
  • Total (Over/Under): 8

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • St. Louis Cardinals - 47%
  • New York Mets - 53%

Projected Win %:

  • St. Louis Cardinals - 51.96%
  • New York Mets - 48.04%

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

The New York Mets are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in a National League matchup on April 28, 2024, at Citi Field. With both teams having a similar record this season, this promises to be an intriguing game.

The Mets, currently sitting at 13-13, are having an average season. They will enjoy the home-field advantage against the Cardinals, who have a slightly below-average season with a record of 13-14. The Mets will be looking to improve their standing and continue their quest for playoff contention.

On the mound for the Mets, left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana is projected to start. Quintana has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.21. Although his ERA suggests an above-average performance, peripheral indicators such as his SIERA, xERA, and FIP indicate that he may have been lucky and could perform worse in future games. Quintana is expected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and giving up 5.1 hits and 2.1 walks.

Taking the mound for the Cardinals is right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn. Lynn boasts an impressive ERA of 2.81 this season and a Win/Loss record of 1-0. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate in his performance so far. Lynn is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 5.5 batters, and giving up 5.1 hits and 2.0 walks.

In terms of offensive strength, the Mets rank 11th in the MLB, while the Cardinals sit at a lower position, ranking 26th. However, the Cardinals excel in team batting average and home runs, ranking 7th and 5th, respectively. The Mets offense, on the other hand, ranks 24th in team batting average and 11th in home runs.

With an estimated Game Total of 8.0 runs and the Mets favored with a moneyline of -120, betting markets anticipate a closely contested game with a slight edge for the Mets. The implied team totals for the Mets and Cardinals stand at 4.10 and 3.90 runs, respectively.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X's analysis suggests that the Mets have a higher win probability than the implied odds. However, the Cardinals' strong offense and top-ranked bullpen may present a challenge for the Mets.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of every team in action today, the 4th-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jose Quintana will allow an average of 2.1 singles in today's outing.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Brett Baty has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brett Baty has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 41 away games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Cardinals vs Mets Prediction: Cardinals 4.4 - Mets 4.01

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+117
28% STL
-140
72% NYM

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-102
37% UN
8.0/-118
63% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-180
46% STL
-1.5/+150
54% NYM

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
NYM
4.59
ERA
4.55
.268
Batting Avg Against
.248
1.43
WHIP
1.38
.322
BABIP
.297
8.3%
BB%
9.9%
20.4%
K%
22.5%
69.8%
LOB%
72.3%
.259
Batting Avg
.236
.436
SLG
.399
.770
OPS
.715
.333
OBP
.317
STL
Team Records
NYM
17-15
Home
18-23
19-20
Road
16-14
24-26
vRHP
25-26
12-9
vLHP
9-11
9-14
vs>.500
12-20
27-21
vs<.500
22-17
7-3
Last10
8-2
11-9
Last20
13-7
19-11
Last30
15-15
L. Lynn
J. Quintana
N/A
Innings
29.2
N/A
GS
5
N/A
W-L
0-4
N/A
ERA
3.03
N/A
K/9
6.07
N/A
BB/9
3.03
N/A
HR/9
0.00
N/A
LOB%
71.1%
N/A
HR/FB%
0.0%
N/A
FIP
2.93
N/A
xFIP
5.03

L. Lynn

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/7 HOU
Jr N/A
L1-6 N/A
3.2
6
5
5
4
2
46-76
10/1 DET
Peralta N/A
W8-1 N/A
5
4
1
1
4
1
54-81
9/25 CLE
Morgan N/A
L0-6 N/A
6
7
6
6
6
0
70-105
9/18 TEX
Howard N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
6
2
1
5
2
53-83
9/12 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
2
0
0
9
0
47-70

J. Quintana

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 DET
Faedo N/A
W7-2 N/A
5
4
2
2
3
1
45-77
4/28 MIL
Peralta N/A
L2-3 N/A
5
4
1
1
9
0
48-78
4/22 CHC
Smyly N/A
W4-2 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
3
3
51-87
4/17 WSH
Corbin N/A
W5-3 N/A
4
5
3
3
2
3
46-85
4/12 CHC
Smyly N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
5
1
1
3
2
43-71

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL NYM
STL NYM
Consensus
-105
-116
+117
-140
-102
-118
+124
-148
-102
-116
+118
-138
-105
-112
+116
-136
-105
-115
+118
-140
-105
-115
+120
-145
-105
-115
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
STL NYM
STL NYM
Consensus
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+154)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-194)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+152)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-205)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+150)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (+102)
8.5 (-128)
8.0 (-117)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-122)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-117)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)