St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

With both teams in the thick of a closely contested series, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 4, 2024, at American Family Field. The Brewers are in a strong position, currently holding a record of 81-58, while the Cardinals sit at 70-69. The Brewers are fighting to maintain their lead in the National League Central, while the Cardinals are looking to gain ground, making this matchup crucial for both sides.

In their last outing, the Brewers faced off against the Cardinals and suffered a 7-4 defeat. Colin Rea, projected to start for Milwaukee, has had a decent season with a 12-4 record and a solid 3.70 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.33 indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, potentially suggesting a decline in performance. Rea’s recent start was uneventful, as he pitched four innings, allowing three earned runs with five strikeouts.

On the other side, Sonny Gray will take the mound for St. Louis. Gray has been impressive, posting a 12-9 record with a 3.96 ERA. His strong underlying stats, including a 2.84 xFIP, suggest he has been unlucky and could be primed for a better performance. Gray’s recent outing was stellar, going six innings and allowing just one earned run with four strikeouts.

The Brewers boast the 7th best offense in MLB and rank 5th in batting average, which gives them an edge against Gray, who tends to limit walks—an area where the Brewers excel, ranking 3rd in the league in that category. According to projections, the Brewers are expected to score around 3.92 runs, while the Cardinals are projected to score 4.26 runs on average. This could indicate a slight advantage for St. Louis, but with the Brewers’ strong lineup and home-field advantage, this matchup is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray's cut-fastball usage has risen by 5.1% from last season to this one (13.1% to 18.2%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Paul Goldschmidt has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

St. Louis's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jake Bauers, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 129 games (+13.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 66% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.22 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.89

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